000 AGXX40 KNHC 181934 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST PRELIMINARY SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS FROM 1800 UTC SHOWS A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1015 MB OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N94W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FL SW TO 28N90W ...AND THEN W AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N94W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS TO NEAR 25N86W IS A REFLECTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING RAPIDLY EWD FROM SW FL TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT DATE FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT DEFINING THE TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E THE ERN GULF BY SUN AND DISSIPATE...THEN THE WRN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND W ALONG 28N TO NEAR 90W BY MON. GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOW THAT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LIGHT WIND AND LOW SEA CONDITIONS (1-2 FT) THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH A MINIMUM OF 1 FT... EXCEPT NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH THREE GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC...BUT SHOULD LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SEAS OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MATCH UP VERY WELL WITH THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...AND LIKE YESTERDAY WILL RELY CLOSELY ON GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME...GENERALLY 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BOTH ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH POSSIBLE INTERPOLATION OF WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 68W WITH E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA LAST NIGHT...AND HAS JUST ENTERED THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASE OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TRPCL N ATLC FRI THROUGH MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N STRENGTHENS AND A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA ALONG 45W COMES INTO THE MIX. THE WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING W 15-20 KT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO NEAR 56W THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN SUN EXITING THE SEA LATE SUN OR EARLY MON. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW THAT THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST LIKELY THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN ZONES. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A MAX OF 11 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS. THE SEA STATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE WITH 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA SUN...SUBSIDING TO 11 FT MON...BUT REMANING UP TO 13 FT IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC SUN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO OF ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA STRENGTHENING AS IT BUILDS WWD. I PLAN TO FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT OF INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SW TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 27N79W. HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED E OF THE AREA NEAR 28N39W AT 1800 UTC WITH A RIDGE SW TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 61W AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL 1200 UTC NAM RUN SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE NE WATERS SAT AND LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH E OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS WITH RIDGE BUILDING WWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS IN ALSO CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THAT 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING. CURRENT ADVERTISED SEAS OF 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS STILL LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH WAVEWATCH SHOWS 9 FT. ON SUN...SLY FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE INTO THE NW WATERS MON. GFS/NOGAPS AND ECMWFHR MODELS SHOW SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG 30N ON MON AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WITH THE 1200 UTC NAM ALSO HINTING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.