000 AGXX40 KNHC 171924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS FROM 1800 UTC SHOWS A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1017 MB OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR 26N94W...AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS N FL. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC THIS MORNING DEPICTED THE HIGH RATHER NICELY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH WED...THEN BECOMES REPLACED BY A RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FL NW TO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE NE GULF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE MODELS IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT SPEEDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LIGHT WIND AND LOW SEA CONDITIONS (1-2) THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE LOWER TEXAS COAST WHERE SEAS ARE MAXING AROUND 4-5 FT. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH THREE GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE THE SEA STATE MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...AND WILL RELY ON THIS GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME...GENERALLY 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG SURGE OF ELY WINDS... 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AND 15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC. BOTH ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH THIS KIND OF GRADIENT. E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE NRN WATERS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH THIS KIND OF GRADIENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASE OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TRPCL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N STRENGTHENS AND A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA ALONG 37W COMES INTO THE MIX. THE WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING W 15-20 KT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO NEAR 55W THU NIGHT...NEAR 66W FRI AFTERNOON...NEAR 76W SAT AFTERNOON AND APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATE SUN. THE WAVE MAY ALSO INTRODUCE INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TRPCL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN ZONES. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A MAX OF 11 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS. THE SEA STATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE WITH 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 13 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEAS SUN AND TO 10-11 OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC SUN. I PLAN TO FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES ANALYZED NEAR 29N50W 1023 MB HAS A RIDGE SW TO THE STRAITS OF FL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR 28N50W LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING A TAD FURTHER S ALONG ABOUT 24N AS THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SE OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS WED MORNING...THEN STALLS ALONG 30N THU AND THU NIGHT. NCEP MODELS ...AND THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE WATER FROM NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS TO NE PART OF THE AREA ON FRI AS ATLC HIGH BUILDS WWD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WED INTO THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE 1200 UTC NAM IS ALSO AGREES WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS. WILL UPDATE THESE WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT. ON SUN...SLY FLOW MAY INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.