000 AGXX40 KNHC 170613 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAKENING N-S TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS OF FL EFFECTIVELY STILL SEPARATES HIGH PRES 1014 MB OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM AN ATLC RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS W ALONG 25N TO SE FL COAST. MODEL RUNS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. MY INTERPRETATION IS THAT THE GULF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE...OR PERHAPS APPEAR BRIEFLY IN THE BUOY OBS...AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER S AND BUILDS WNW FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WED. BY THEN THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM W FL TO NE TX. A REINFORCING FRONT/NLY SURGE ARRIVES WED NIGHT AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO ALONG 28N E OF 90W THU. SE RETURN FLOW WILL MAX AT 15 KT...SEAS 3-4 FT...ALONG TX COAST...AND NW WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10 TO 15 KT...SEAS 3-4 FT...N OF FRONT ON THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT IN THE 15 KT RANGE. OTHERWISE WINDS IN 5-10 KT RANGE OVER GULF WATERS THIS WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE W 15 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. ELY WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND NE-E 10-15 KT WIND OBSERVED W OF THE WAVE. WITH THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER S...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN RELAX TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT AND THU. BY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG 51W AND MOVING W AT 18 KT...WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN REACHING ALONG 75W LATE FRI WITH E WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT E OF THE WAVE. A THIRD WAVE ESTIMATED ALONG 33W WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 55W LATE THU AND ALONG 65W LATE FRI. SW ATLC...HIGH PRES NEAR 25N58W 1021 MB HAS A RIDGE W TO FL COAST AT 25-26N. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR 28N50W LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING A TAD FURTHER S ALONG ABOUT 24N AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS WED MORNING THEN STALLS ALONG 30N THU AND THU NIGHT DIPPING A FURTHER S OVER FL TO PERHAPS 28N FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE NEAR THE FRONTAL REMNANTS. MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ON STRENGTH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT ONLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.