000 AGXX40 KNHC 131731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 132 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AND A WEAK SFC RIDGING ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST HAS MAINTAINED 24 TO 36 HOURS OF ENHANCED SERLY IN A NARROW STRIPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. WITH THE GRADIENT NOW DECREASING AS LOW PRES LIFTS WELL N INTO CANADA...MORNING BUOY AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. STILL THOUGH...A QUIKSCAT PASS PRIOR TO 12 UTC SHOWED E TO SE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N92W TO 28N95W. IN ADDITION...SHIP BATFR38...EARLIER NE OF THE YUCATAN...REPORTED 20 KT WINDS. WITH THE WIND SLOWLY DROPPING OFF ...SEAS HAVE JUST NOW BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT STILL COVER A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN GULF. IN FACT...BUOY 42055 WAS RECENTLY ON THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE ...REPORTING SEAS OF JUST OVER 7 FT. ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL EXCEPT SE TO S 10 KT OR LESS NEAR THE NE GULF COAST. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS DOMINATE THE NE GULF WATERS... WHILE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR SW. OVER THE SHORT-TERM...WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD LIE EITHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN OR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR VERY LIGHT WINDS GULF WIDE...ESPECIALLY BY SUN. AS A RESULT...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND TO ABOUT 2 FT OR LESS GULF-WIDE BY SUN. PERHAPS THE ONLY CONCERN TO MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF... WHERE A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPARK SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS. LONGER-TERM...MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A TRANSITION TO THE PRESENT PATTERN BY INTRODUCING A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH EITHER ALONG OR INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE CHANGE...THE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE EXTENDED -RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. IN FACT...MODELS SHOW E TO SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE SRN GULF BECOMING MORE SE TO S BY MID-WEEK AND A GENERAL SW TO W FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF. SEAS SHOULD RUN 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE MARINE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT SETTLING TO THE GULF COAST LATE TUE...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW GULF SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF COAST AND OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MON THROUGH WED. SW ATLC...WEAK RIDGING ALONG 29-30N HAS SHIFTED E AND WEAKENED DURING THE LAST 24 HRS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS APPROACHES THE AREA. S OF THE FRONT NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF ABOUT 27N... WHILE 10 TO 15 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE SOME SORT OF MESOSCALE DISTURBANCE IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY E AN INTRODUCING LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION...SHOWING NE 20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 21N AND 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. HAVE ALSO HAD SEVERAL PHONE CALLS FROM MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THIS AREA...REPORTING SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS TO 3 TO 5 FT S OF 25N AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OVER THE SHORT-TERM...THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... PERHAPS INTRODUCING NE 15 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NE. WITH BUOY 41048 REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA...SOME BRIEF WINDS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NE BORDER LATER TODAY. NE SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING OVER THE ERN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING OUT AROUND 7 FT EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...THE NRN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN COULD AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 23N LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BY INCREASING E TO SE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT. LONGER-TERM...MODELS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY MON...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 26-27N. IN RESPONSE...E TO SE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE S OF 23N TO 15 TO 20 KT. THEREAFTER ...A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BUT REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA. N OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT S OF THE FRONT SW TO W WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT STARTING LATE MON OR EARLY TUE AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WED AS THE FRONT STALLS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT N OF 27N E OF 74W AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT W OF 75W...WITH LOWEST VALUES NEAR THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FORMING OVER FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AREAS. CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL N ATLC...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES...ONE JUST PAST 70W AND THE OTHER AROUND 64W...ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AT 10 TO 15 KT. THEIR PASSAGE IS SPARKING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS FAR LESS CONCENTRATED THAN IT WAS A DAY OR TWO AGO. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED THAT AN ELY SURGE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVES...WITH A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS NEAR AND W OF THEM FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE FEW SHIP REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA...SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT APPEAR COMMON N OF 15N...WHILE 5 TO 8 FT SEAS LIE S OF 15N. FARTHER E...TRADES HAVE GROWN STRONGER OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST DURING THE LAST 12 TO 24 HRS...WITH A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING UP TO 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N75.5W. NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THE SW AND DIRECTLY S OF JAMAICA. MODELS SHOW THE ELY SURGE BEHIND THE WAVES CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GOING INTO SAT...THOUGH THE SURGE SHOULD ABATE OVER THE SRN TRPCL ATLC WATERS. THEREAFTER... GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ELY SURGE AND A STRENGTHENING ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTRODUCING A ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM THE SRN HALF OF THE TRPCL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED. ENSEMBLE WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGESTS A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 8 FT SEAS FORMING FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W TO NEARLY 80W BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A MAX OF 13 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS NO STRONGER THAN 30 KT NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN/VENEZUELAN COASTS...FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL N ATLC...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE...THE ELY SWELL SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...WITH 6 TO 10 FT SEAS BUILDING S OF 15N W OF 80W EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE FAR S. SOME OF THE SWELL SHOULD EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND THIS...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT EXPECTED...HIGHEST TO THE SE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.