000 AGXX40 KNHC 130543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING THE GULF CONSISTS OF SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TOWARD THE NRN WATERS. TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND N MEXICO IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE S WATERS AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE...LIGHTEST OVER THE NE WATERS. HIGHEST SEAS OBSERVED ARE AT NOAA BUOY 42019 OFF THE TX COAST AT 6 FT. THIS IS LIKELY THE REGION OF MAX SEAS GIVEN IT HAS THE LONGEST FETCH. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 25N BETWEEN 87W-94W DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REASONING FOR THIS IS A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL/NE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFTING S THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE N HALF AND 10-15 KT OVER THE S WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FT OR LESS LATE SAT THRU TUE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE NE WATERS ON MON BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE W WATERS FRI AND EARLY SAT AND THEN OVER THE NE AND N MIDDLE WATERS SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS ONE IS FAIRLY INACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 01Z SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 15-20 KT E WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT E WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIB. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...ELY WINDS ARE 15-20 KT S OF 18N (STRONGEST NEAR THE WAVE AXIS) AND 10-15 KT N OF 18N. AS THE TROPICAL WAVES PUSH W THRU THE CARIBBEAN AND AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC...AN AREA OF 20-25 KT E WINDS WILL EXPAND ON SAT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THEN STRETCH E THROUGH TUE. THE DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 14 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WATERS BY MON AND TUE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE W CARIB WILL BE THE INCREASE IN E SWELLS SUN THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC... NE TO E LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT E WINDS S OF 22N...AS NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE S WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NE WATERS. BY SUN AND MON...SE TO S 10-15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT...WINDS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE ON THE W PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING. NE SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE NE WATERS ON SUN AND THEN DIMINISH. WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SW ON TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.