000
AGXX40 KNHC 120823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO N 
GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS ERN GULF 
BECOMING STRONGER AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG WRN GULF IN 
RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING INTO WRN TEXAS.  WINDS AND SEAS 
SHOULD MAINTAIN FRESH STRENGTH N OF 25N W OF 88W SUPPORTED BY 
TRPCL WAVE ALONG 94W.  PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE 
MOSTLY S OF 20N INLAND MEXICO WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS. 

UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX PREVIOUSLY OVER FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED BACK 
OVER SW N ATLC AND IS FILLING IN.  NEVERTHELESS IT STILL 
MAINTAINS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PENINSULA JUST 
WAITING FOR UPLIFTING MECHANISM...WHICH DAYTIME HEATING LIKELY 
TO PROVIDE LATER TODAY.  OTHERWISE...GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN 
MOSTLY UNDER DRY AIR MASS N OF 23N W OF 91W.  GLOBAL MODELS 
SOLUTION INSINUATE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NE GULF WHICH 
CONSIDERING PRESENT RIDGE PSN AND STRENGTH IS DOUBTFUL.    

SW N ATLC...STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1021 MB 30N72W WILL HOLD ITS 
GROUND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OUGHT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT 
WIND N OF 27N WHILE BRINGING MODERATE E FLOW S OF 27N.  UPPER 
LEVEL VORTEX AT 28N76W KEEPS MOISTURE COMING INTO BASIN SW OF 
LINE FROM 31N79W TO 20N70W.  STILL REMAINS VERY DRY NW OF LINE 
BUT ADVECTING OF MOISTURE EXTEND DEEP INTO WRN CARIBBEAN.   
  
TRPCL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...PLENTY OF TRPCL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH TRPCL WAVE OVER WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ERN VENEZUELA.  WIND 
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT AND 8 FT BEHIND WAVE AXIS 
AS IT TROLLS ALONG W AT 15-20 KT.  
  
SECOND TRPCL WAVE ABOUT TO ENTER TRPCL ATLC NOW ALONG 53N HAS 
EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 09N53W.  SYSTEM IS MONITORED AS 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT COMPLETELY ADVERSE TO 
DEVELOPMENT.  OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRES N OF AREA MAINTAIN 
FRESH E TRADES ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN WITH NORMAL HIGHER WIND 
SPEEDS AND SEAS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.