000 AGXX40 KNHC 111726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC THROUGH THE NRN GULF WATERS IS HELPING TO PROVIDE A LIGHT WIND REGIME ACROSS THE GULF...CHARACTERIZED BY E TO SE 1O TO 15 KT WINDS TO THE SW AND SE TO S 10 KT OR LESS WINDS CLOSER TO THE NRN GULF COAST. SEAS CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE LOWERING WIND...WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS GENERALLY THE RULE SW OF A LINE RUNNING FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE TX COAST. ELSEWHERE GULF WATERS COULD NOT BE MORE PLACID...WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS COVERING THE AREA NE OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN END OF A TRPCL WAVE EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING S OF ABOUT 23N...ESP OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. A STRONG CLOSED CYCLONE BARRELING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES IS CAUSING DEEP LOW PRES TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...A PATTERN OBSERVED AD INFINITUM THIS SPRING. AS A RESULT... GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT FOR DAYS ON A BRIEF BOUT OF SE 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FRI. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD LIE ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N90W TO 27N94W. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERRUPT THE RELATIVE CALM OVER THE GULF RIGHT NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE ABOVE AREA. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OF LIMITED FETCH AND DURATION...THE LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING 8 FT SEAS SEEMS TO BE RATHER SLIM. OTHERWISE...AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD INTO SRN CANADA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THE ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF SHOULD RELAX. MODELS SHOWS A WEAK SFC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF SAT AND SUN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ALL AREAS TO LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY RIGHT OFFSHORE THE TX/NE MEXICAN COASTS. INTERESTINGLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN STATES WILL IN THE MIDST OF A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE AROUND THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL... ALL AGREE ON THIS CHANGE AND SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKNESS SHOULD FORM OVER THE NE GULF/SERN STATES SUN/MON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM IN RESPONSE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE OR NE GULF COAST...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPORTANCE OF THIS TO THE FCST IS THE INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY OVER THE FL/NE GULF TWD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SW ATLC...WEAK SFC RIDGING ALONG 29-30N CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW ATLC AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS A VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY E TO SE FLOW OF 10 KT OR LESS CORRESPOND TO 2 TO 3 FT SEAS ...EXCEPT AROUND 1 FT DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST. S OF ABOUT 25N NE TO E WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT...EVEN W OF THE BAHAMAS. MODELS THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRESENT PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW. BY FRI...HOWEVER...A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE FORMING ALONG 60W...SHOULD INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN ATLC...WITH THE WRN END OF THE FRONT DESCENDING INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS VERY LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT. THE INTRODUCTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MEANING THOUGH...EXCEPT THAT NE SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SHOULD REACH THE FAR NE WATERS SAT AND SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE COULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NRN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 50W. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT S OF ABOUT 23N SAT INTO SUN. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...MOISTURE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE ERN STATES SUN AND MON. IN THE VERY LEAST...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINS...ESP NEAR THE FL PENINSULA DURING PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS...MARINE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TRANQUIL. CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL N ATLC...TRPCL WAVE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN YDAY HAS MOVED W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. IN ITS WAKE THOUGH...QUIKSCAT REVEALED A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SE 20 KT WINDS W OF ABOUT 85W. NOAA WAVEWATCH III WAS INDICATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT SHIP REPORTS AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT SEAS LIKELY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...AN ACTIVE TRPCL WAVE ALONG 59W IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EMERGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...VARIOUS DATA SHOW ANOTHER ACTIVE WAVE DIRECTLY SE...NOW APPROACHING 50W. MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OF THE FIRST WAVE WELL TO THE E TO AT LEAST 45W S OF 15N. IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVES ...WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 5 TO 8 FT AND PERHAPS UP TO 9 TO 10 FT IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE WAVES...WITH SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGES WERE DEVELOPED UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF ONE WAVE TRACKING FROM THE SRN TRPCL ATLC ZONE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THE IMPACT OF BOTH AND WILL CARRY THEIR INFLUENCE INTO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. APART FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES...SFC PRES IS BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE BASIN AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE N HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED. THIS SHOULD MEAN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IN BETWEEN WAVES THROUGH SAT. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL AREAS W OF 75W LATE SAT INTO SUN...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N E OF 80W. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUN AND MON PUSHING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TRADES TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS E OF 75W SUN INTO MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.