000 AGXX40 KNHC 081658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS FL OVER THE NE GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT ALONG RIDGE AXIS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THE UPPER PATTERN MAY ACTUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION INSTEAD OF ENHANCING IT AS MODELS SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT ALONG A SWATH CENTERED FROM YUCATAN CHANNEL TO E TX AT 27N. A 0915 UTC ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 8 FT NEAR 27N95W OTHERWISE BUOYS MAXING AT 7 FT. EXPECT GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT TONIGHT INTO MON THEN INCREASE OVER CENTRAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...HIGH PRES 1021 MB 30N81W ATTM EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE AND MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W OF THE CENTER. THUS WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE AT 5-10 KT AROUND RIDGE WITH SOME NE AND E SWELL STILL MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS AT 3-4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SW WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY CREEP UP TO 15 KT W OF GULF STREAM ALONG NE FL COAST WHERE SOUTHBOUND CRUISERS MAY TRY TO STAY OUT SOUTHERLY CURRENT. NE TO E WINDS S OF RIDGE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH END OF WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25.5N77W WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES W AT A GOOD CLIP AND CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN INTERMITTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT ON SURFACE DATA EXTENDING FROM NE CUBA TO 25N73W AT 1200 UTC THIS AM. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE WITHIN 75 NM OVER E SEMICIRCLE UPPER CYCLONE AND ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS SE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MODELS NOW BARELY HANG ONTO FEATURE MOVING IT THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND CAY SAL BANK MON...AND TO THE SE FL COAST MON NIGHT. A BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AND CUTTING UNDER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BROAD TROUGH S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. THOUGH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW CARIBBEAN NOT AS INTENSE AS SAT THERE IS QUITE OF BIT OF DEBRIS MOISTURE AND STILL EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SOURCE AND ADVECT IT N OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MON...AND OVER FL MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A MODIFICATION OF UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING POPS. THIS UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W IN E CARIBBEAN AND MOVING W AT 14 KT PAST 24 HOURS WITH ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION PASSING THROUGH PUERTO RICO THIS AM. THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO ALONG 75W MON...81W TUE AND OVER GULF OF HONDURAS WED. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP WAVE IN FAVORABLE POSITION E OF UPPER TROUGH FOR CONVECTION AND THUS A CONTINUED DEBRIS MOISTURE SOURCE TO FEED N INTO SUBTROPICS. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41N THIS MORNING AND MOVING W AT 14 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL PUT WAVE ALONG 55W TUE NIGHT...INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT...AND ALONG 70W FRI. OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WELL N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADES WITH THE NORMAL 20-25 KT FLUCTUATIONS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.