000
AGXX40 KNHC 051710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
110 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...THE PRIMARY MARINE FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY IS 
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER NW GULF. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE 
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 
ROUGHLY 30N. A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING 
FROM A 988 MB LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO A 996 MB LOW OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
MIGRATING INTO THE LOW PRES THROUGH YUCATAN. THE TIGHT GRADIENT 
SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES FEATURES IS ALLOWING 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE SE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SHOW A LARGE AREA 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT REPORTS TO 30 KT 
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. FURTHER EAST...CMAN AND ADJACENT QUIKSCAT 
DATA SHOW E WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENERALLY 
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS 
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT TONIGHT...WHICH IS SENSIBLE 
CONSIDERING HOW DEEP THE LOW PRES IS. MAY ADD MENTION OF GUSTS 
HOWEVER. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS 
WEAKENS AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...A 1038Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH 
DATA FROM BUOY 42058 INDICATED TRADES TO 25 KT ACTIVE IN THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED JUST EAST 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 75W. FURTHER WEST....ALTHOUGH NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OR 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT AT LEAST 20 KT SE WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE 
WEST. TH STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLC WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER 
TROUGH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA IS 
AIDING CONVECTION FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...BUT OTHERWISE 
NO MAJOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED.

SW N ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS E-W ALONG 30N FROM SOUTH 
OF BERMUDA TO NORTH FLORIDA. BUOY AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE TO NEAR 22N. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT S OF 22N THROUGH EASTERN 
CUBA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL WAVE 
TO THE SOUTH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING 
AHEAD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL 
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLC NE OF BERMUDA THROUGH FRI. THIS COMES 
IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR 25N65W BY FRI 
NIGHT...INDUCING THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE 
VICINITY. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH TRACKING 
WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS IT DAMPENS OUT. THE GFS AND THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...BUT THE EURO...UKMET...AND NOGAPS AT 
LEAST SHOW A VERY WEAK TROUGH E OF 70W. NET EFFECT WILL BE TO 
INCREASE TRADES BRIEFLY FRI AND SAT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING AFTERWARD. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.