000 AGXX40 KNHC 050547 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT)...ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO N FLORIDA WITH THE EVENING QSCAT PASS SHOWING LIGHT WINDS N OF 26N AND MODERATE EASTERLIES S OF 26N. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NWD BY FRI/FRI NIGHT...REACHING ALONG 31N/32N AS A PIECE OF HIGH PRES BREAKS FROM THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS. A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY TONIGHT N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 65W DUE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ISOLATE THE AREA OF HIGH PRES...WHICH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. LONG-TERM (SAT THROUGH MON)...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS CLOSES OFF A SFC LOW ALONG THE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...NOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS OF YET. REGARDLESS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO 67W ON SAT...NEAR 70W SUN...THEN NEAR 73W MON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES JUST OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SAT WILL SLIP UP AND OVER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND BE JUST SW OF BERMUDA BY MON...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...STRONG TRADES ARE ONGOING OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ATLC RIDGE PROTRUDING W ACROSS FLORIDA AND GENERAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE W ATLC...THE TRADES WILL NOT DIMINISH FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND IN FACT COULD INCREASE TO 30 KT LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT N OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRI/FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL STILL BE HOVERING NEAR 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...FORCED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SE MEXICO. LONG-TERM...THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SAT AS A SFC TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO MOVES W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE AND WILL PROBABLY MAX OUT NEAR 25 KT CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST SAT THROUGH MON. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS STILL REACHING 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...HEALTHY RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF DUE TO RIDGING ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND LOW PRES NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THE EVENING QSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIZABLE AREA OF 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TEXAS COAST AND IS BEING ECHOED BY THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS. THE STRONG SE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT EXPLICITLY BEAR OUT THIS FACT... THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES AND IN GENERAL THE NOCTURNAL JET TENDS TO BUMP WINDS UP FROM WHAT THEY MAY HAVE BEEN DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 10 OR 11 FT MAINLY NEAR THE TX COAST. STRONG SE FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF. LONG-TERM...LOW PRES OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE ATLC RIDGE BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW GULF. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUSHED S TO THE SW GULF DUE TO GENERAL LOW PRES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT EVEN THESE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.