000 AGXX40 KNHC 040604 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE NOAA BUOY 42055 IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT WITH WIND GUST OF 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHT OF 6 FT. A 1005 MB LOW PRES AREA IS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N94W MOVING NORTHWARD AND INLAND ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FRI THROUGH SUN WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW. CURRENTLY...20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND THE NWW3 ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO 20 KT AGAIN. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST IN THE ATLC WATERS E OF WINDWARD ISLANDS. A WIND SURGE FOLLOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 36W ON THE 00Z SFC MAP. THESE WINDS MAY REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ON FRI. SW N ATLC...SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 28N...S OF WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER AND BERMUDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS PERSIST S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH AN ASCAT PASS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SHOWING A HINT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS E OF THE SE BAHAMAS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH IN THE REGION. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER GR. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.