000 AGXX40 KNHC 021726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WED)...RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM 29N65W TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST STRETCHING W ACROSS GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR 31N/32N W OF 75W THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY WAFFLING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE ZONE LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTING N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE. MODERATE E/SE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS (S OF 25N) AND WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND TO S OF 28N BY WED AS THE SFC RIDGE LIFTS N BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG-TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS N OF 31N WED NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERLIES E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PRES GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN JUST TO THE N AND W OF THE TROUGH...PRODUCING 15-20 KT WINDS THU AND FRI ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ZONE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SCENARIO TO BE CERTAIN THAN IN PREVIOUS DAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NW THROUGH SAT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ZONE...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ARTHUR IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER SE MEXICO JUST S OF CUIDAD DEL CARMEN...YET THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO EXTEND EWD OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 10-14 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALTHOUGH QSCAT AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST THAT E WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE MAINLY S OF 19N W OF 85W...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LESS THAN 20 KT ON WED. 20-25 KT WINDS ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MUCH. IN GENERAL IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 20 KT WITH SOME INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH WED. LONG-TERM...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRIP HIGHER WINDS WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA TOWARDS CUBA LATER IN THE WEEK...LIKELY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. THIS MAY REQUIRE WINDS TO BE NOTCHED DOWN JUST A BIT IN DAYS 3-5. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ARTHUR IS CENTERED JUST S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN AND CONTINUES TO MOVE W TOWARDS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 1156 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED NE/E WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GFS CONTINUES THESE WINDS THROUGH TUE MORNING...DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET IN TUE NIGHT OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT/WED. WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7 FT OFF TEXAS IN LINE WITH UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE. LONG-TERM...THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AT NIGHT DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL JET. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BY SAT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO A MORE E/SE DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SPEEDS. OVER THE E/CNTRL GULF...E/SE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.