000 AGXX40 KNHC 011800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. NOTE...THE 12Z GFS RUN IS UNAVAILABLE FROM NCEP. AS A RESULT... THE 12Z NWW3...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 12Z GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS ARE ALSO UNAVAILABLE AND CANNOT BE INCORPORATED INTO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUE)...SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST LATE MON THEN STALL NEAR 31N/32N W OF 76W MON NIGHT AND NEVER VENTURE INTO THE SW ATLC ZONE. BY TUE THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LONG-TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS N...THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWS AND REACHES 31N BY WED. THE 06Z GFS RUN DEVELOPS AN E/W TROUGH AXIS ON WED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CNTRL PART OF THE ZONE LIFTING IT N THROUGH FRI WITH AN ACCELERATION OF WINDS AROUND IT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HINTS AT A WEAK TROUGH BUT HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR SW PART ON THU WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS WWD...CONTINUING INTO FRI AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING A LITTLE FARTHER N ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...T.D. ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE W ACROSS SE MEXICO AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDS/SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS THEREFORE DROPPED THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION. NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS BEEN REPORTING MAXIMUM 1-MIN WINDS OF 21-23 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS WITH SEAS 5-6 FT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST...ESPECIALLY S OF 19N W OF 85W WHERE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY PERSISTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH GFS GUIDANCE. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SHOULD NUDGE LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE. LONG-TERM...THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN GETTING TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH 20-25 KT LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A RIBBON OF STRONGER PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST 20 KT FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU AND FRI AS BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER CNTRL AMERICA AND HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE ATLC. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...THE CENTER OF T.D. ARTHUR IS JUST SE OF THE LAGUNA DE TERMINOS IN SE MEXICO BUT IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. QSCAT DATA HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE ALL MORNING AND THE HIGHEST 1-MIN WIND REPORTED BY NOAA BUOY 42055...ABOUT 240 NM NW OF THE COAST...HAS BEEN 17 KT. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS WINDS DOWN TO 20-25 KT OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND LASTING OVERNIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ON MON...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE 15Z NHC ADVISORY. NWW3 GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REPORTED AT THE BUOY...AND THE LIMITED ELY FETCH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT HIGHEST SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE DIMINISHES THE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE SO WILL STICK IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE A RIDGE NEAR THE N GULF COAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LONG-TERM...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE N GULF COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI BUT AN INCREASE TO THE TEXAS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE NIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS OVER THE ERN/MIDDLE GULF ON THU WITH E/SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE SW GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONTINUING BROAD LOW PRES OVER SE MEXICO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.