000 AGXX40 KNHC 010609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN JUN O1 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA WITH E WINDS 10-15 KT S OF THE AXIS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE S TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EAST COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART MON. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SW PART WILL STRENGTHEN WED AND THU BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF SE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING ALSO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... JUST ONE DAY BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD ALLOW ARTHUR TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. SE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE TODAY THROUGH MON. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 66W AND 77W WED AND THU AS BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH BUILDING EASTERLY SWELLS. GULF OF MEXICO... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...T.S. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AS WELL AS ERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY INTO MON. IN THE MEAN TIME...RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LOW SEA STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE SW GULF TUE AND WED. THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE E GULF ON THU WITH A LARGE AREA OF E/SE 15-20 KT EXPECTED E OF 90W. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR WEST GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 20N W OF 86W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER GR. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.