000 AGXX40 KNHC 261719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT) LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF...PRODUCING A MOSTLY E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT WIND FLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO...AN 1140 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID REVEAL A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SE 20 KT WINDS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W AND FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 94W. MORNING DATA FROM THE WESTERN GULF DATA BUOY AND FROM SEVERAL COASTAL LAND STATIONS ALSO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THESE AREAS. THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED 20 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF S OF 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...IN THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MOVED PUSHED THROUGH REGION YESTERDAY. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN CONCERT WITH NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT E OF 91W EXCEPT TO 5 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS W OF 91W. BUOY 42020... DIRECTLY OFFSHORE CRP...IS THE WINNER WITH HIGHEST OF 6.6 FT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF COULD CAUSE NE TO E WINDS TO BLOW TO 20 KT AT TIMES...ESP S OF 26N BY TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HOVERING OVER THE NORTHER GULF AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING...EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF N OF 26N ALONG WITH SEAS. IN FACT...SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 FT N OF 27N BY TUE EVENING AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE..EXCEPT TO 6 OT EVEN POSSIBLY 7 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGER ELY FLOW. LONGER-TERM (WED THROUGH SAT) BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FLANKING IT TO THE E. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GULF RIDGING SPREADING E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK ...SHIELDING THE GULF FROM THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE N. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AND SOMEWHAT WEAK SFC RIDGING RESIDING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WED AND THU AND STALL...ONLY TO BE LURED NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI. OVER THIS TIME...EXPECT NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT SE WINDS NEAR THE TX COAST AND VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY SW TO W WINDS N OF 29N. SEAS SHOULD FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS N OF 27N BY LATE WEEK...WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS S OF THERE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BROAD LOW PRES FORMING EITHER SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND GRADUALLY LIFTING NW FROM THU THROUGH SAT. SOME MODELS LIKE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT WHATEVER LOW PRES DEVELOPS WOULD REMAIN IN EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF MEXICO/GUATEMALA...WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT ULTIMATELY IN THE W/NW CARIBBEAN CLOSE TO LAND. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS TO WHERE SFC LOW PRES COULD BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT...SOME WITH REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY... THERE SEEMS LESS DOUBT TODAY THAT BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SHOW SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW GULF BEGINNING LATE FRI INTO SAT. SW ATLC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LYING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS SLOWLY FILLING AND SHIFTING E TODAY...AS RIDGING FROM THE GULF SPILLS OVER INTO THE SW ATLC. FOR THE TIME BEING THOUGH...THE TROUGH HAS DEPOSITED A FRONT OVER THE SE WATERS WHICH HAS STALLED FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A LARGE SWATH OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY N OF 24N AND SLIGHTLY W OF THE NE FL COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HRS AND HAVE LED TO SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 6 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE FRONTS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN...THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT TUE AND BECOME DIFFUSE. NE TO E FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT W OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING...AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT...WITH NE SWELL LEAKING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO THE E FL COAST. A SE TO S 10 TO 15 FT FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE SE OF THE FRONT...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LONGER-TERM (WED THROUGH SAT)...MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GULF SHOULD ARCH ACROSS FL INTO THE SW ATLC TUE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE HEIGHT BEGIN TO ERODE...THANKS TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. SINCE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE HAD VARIED SOLNS AS TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SEVERAL FROM YESTERDAY INDICATING THAT RIDGING WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE N. HOWEVER...TODAYS RUNS SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE LATEST UKMET/GFS. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EMERGING TREND...WILL INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE FRI OR SAT. UNTIL THEN...WEAK RIDGING SHOULD HOLD SWAY ALONG 29-30N...WITH E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHTER E TO SE WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME MORE SW TO W WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BY FRI. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SHOULD SUBSIDE PRIOR TO THE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BUT COULD REBUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT IF THE SW FLOW IS STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN AND N TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...LOW PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW ATLC AND A DISPLACED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE E HAS MEANT A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AND A FAR CRY FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. SEAS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT...EVEN OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE WINDS AND SEAS ARE NORMALLY LOCALLY HIGHER. THE HIGHEST SEAS THOUGH ARE STILL OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AFTER AT LEAST 48 HRS OF STRONG SE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN WELL-ADVERTISED...MODELS INDICATE THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TONIGHT BUT ESP ON TUE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE NEARLY TRANQUIL SEA STATE TODAY TO BECOME MORE TURBULENT TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT E OF 75W AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY TUE EVENING IN STEEP ELY WIND WAVES. E OF 75W...MOST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXCEPT FOR S OF 17N E OF 80W...WHERE ELY WINDS SHOULD REACH 15 TO 20 KT BY TUE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NOW THROUGH TUE. LONGER-TERM (WED THROUGH SAT)...THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS A BIT CLOUDY FOR AREAS W OF 75W...GIVEN THE VARIED MODELS SOLNS WITH REGARD TO BROAD LOW PRES FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS SOON AS MID-WEEK. SOME SOLNS DEVELOP LOW PRES EXCLUSIVELY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC LIKE THE UKMET...WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FORMING BOTH SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND IN THE SW/NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE WILL BE DEVELOPED ASSUMING BROAD LOW PRES TRANSLATING NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WED THROUGH SAT. GIVEN THE RELATIVE INCREASE IN PRES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IN THE VERY LEAST THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASING E TO SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ESP W OF 80W BY FRI AND SAT. A WAVE NOMOGRAM SHOWS THAT 20-25 KT OF WIND BLOWING OVER A 24 HR PERIOD SHOULD YIELD 9-10 FT SEAS. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SUCH CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI OR SAT IN STEEP E TO SE WIND WAVES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.