000 AGXX40 KNHC 251754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT)... AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE E TO SE AND DECREASED. STILL THOUGH...A 1206 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SPOTTY 20 KT WINDS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. BUOY 42002 IN THE WESTERN GULF AGREES WELL WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS...SHOWING ESE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS STILL UP TO 6 FT. SEAS STILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT N OF 22 W OF 90W BUT HAVE SUBSIDED ELSEWHERE TO 1 TO 3 FT. PATTERN-WISE...A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DEEP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FLANKING IT TO THE E. THE TROUGH TO THE E HAS HELPED USHER IN A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NE GULF WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY MON AS RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST BUILDS SW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BRIEF SURGE OF NE TO E FLOW OVER THE NE GULF LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 20 KT MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 87W. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT IN STEEP E WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA...WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH MON. LONGER-TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...BROAD BUT FLATTER RIDGING LYING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST BY LATE WEEK. WITH MAIN WESTERLIES LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF THE AREA...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WED AND THU BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT FRI. ALL THE WHILE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING RESIDING OVER THE NORTHER GULF SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A LIGHT WIND REGIME ACROSS GULF WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT TUE LIKELY SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT WED AND 1 TO 3 FT LATE WEEK. AS A SIDENOTE...THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT UPON DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK...WITH SOME SOLNS TRACKING THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH STOCK TO PLACE IN THESE FORECASTS...AND THE SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN AN OVERALL SENSE IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT BY REFERRING TO CURRENT NHC PRODUCTS. SW ATLC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO EAST CENTRAL CUBA...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE E OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N62W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HAS LED TO FRESH NERLY FLOW GENERALLY N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH 10 TO 15 KT N TO NE FLOW ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SE AND NE QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION ...SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE APPARENT N OF 24N AND E OF THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 330 NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. ALTHOUGH THE BRISK NERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN BLOWING TOO LONG...SEAS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED BY BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES N OF 28N AND E OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ...NOAA BUOY 41010 NEAR 29N79W REPORTS 8 FT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SEC. THIS REPORT SUGGESTS THAT PREVIOUS UKMET WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB IN PREDICTING SEAS FOR THIS EVENT...WHILE THE NOAA WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN UNDERDOING FORECAST CONDITIONS THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. ELSEWHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 2 TO 4 FT W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. NO SHIP REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE STRONG SW FLOW...BUT SEAS THERE HAVE LIKELY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT IN SW WIND WAVES GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SETTLING SE TODAY INTO EARLY MON BUT SHOULD ULTIMATELY STALL ROUGHLY FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA MON AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E FLOW NW OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MON BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ABATE FROM N TO S GOING INTO MON NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT NEAR AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH NE WIND WAVES BLEEDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA E COAST. LONGER-TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO THE BAHAMAS SHOULD BEGIN HEADING E EARLY THIS WEEK...REPLACED BY A BROAD BUT RELATIVELY FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF. AS THIS OCCURS...THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY WED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST NE TO E FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN 100-200 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY INTO TUE...THESE SHOULD FURTHER ABATE AS MODELS SHOW WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 27-28N BY WED. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS WED-THU...BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SW ATLC SHOULD HOLD SWAY AND PREVENT THE FRONT FROM TRACKING S OF ABOUT 29-30N LATE WEEK. STILL THOUGH...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SW TO W FLOW NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WED THROUGH THU. S OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A GENERAL E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS ANS 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. N OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT UNDER A NE TO E FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON)...LOW PRES OVER THE SW ATLC AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE E HAVE LED TO A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEKEND. SHIP...BUOY...AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...AS A RESULT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS S OF 20N W OF 84W...WHERE A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWED E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS OVER THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO BEFORE SUBSIDING. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT ALL ARES...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS NEAR MAJOR LAND MASSES. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WINDS HAVE VEERED SE TO S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW ATLC...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT MOST AREAS. LONGER-TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN PREDICTING A RESURGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING AS SOON AS MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED TRADES TO BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST GENERALLY S OF 15N. THE COVERAGE OF 20 KT WINDS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E OF 78W GOING INTO WED...WITH LIGHTER WINDS STILL PREVAILING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ATTEMPTED TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EITHER OVER THE EAST PAC OR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW NOW SOUTH OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SHOW BROAD LOW PRES FORMING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NW BY FRI. PLEASE CONSULT FUTURE PRODUCTS FROM TPC CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.