000 AGXX40 KNHC 250616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLANTIC... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W SW TO S FL. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW FORMED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR 28N72W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW AND THEN NW TO THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ENE TO 28N68W TO 31N62W. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT PREVIOUSLY EXTENDED INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED TO E OF 65W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT PRETTY MUCH NOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 70W. RECENT BUOY DATA NEAR THE LOW SHOWED WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASES IN SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2315 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED CYCLONIC TURNING TO WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS OF 25-40 KT TO THE NE AND SW OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SSE...AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS FORCING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ALONG 32N W OF 70W INLAND SE GEORGIA TO PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUN. GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW TRACKS EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO A TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. LOW THEN LIFTS NW TO NEAR 31N71W TO 27N74W BY WED AND DISSIPATES LATE WED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN PREFER TO TRACK IT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE GFS EXITING IT NE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CANADIAN BEING SLOWER MOVING IT NNE TO N OF 31N BY MON EVENING. THE 00 UTC REGIONAL NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR BUT FASTER SOLN TAKING THE LOW NE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LEAVES A WEAKER LOW IN ITS WAKE NEAR 25N72W THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATING IT BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARING RATHER POTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS VIEWED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE NAM MODEL RUNS FOR TIMING AND PSN OF THE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HRS FOLLOWING THE TRACK OUTLINE BY THOSE MODELS. WILL LOOK TO SOLNS OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IF LOW APPEARS TO SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF THE FRONT AND PRIMARILY W OF 70W TODAY THROUGH MON. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN FCST SEAS WITH THE 00Z NWW3 INDICATING A MAX OF 7 FT BY TONIGHT WHILE THE 00Z UKMET WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 9 FT TODAY WELL OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE WITH EARLIER RUNS WHICH SHOWED UP TO 12 FT. WILL GO IN BETWEEN BOTH SOLNS WITH 8 FT AS MY MAX SEAS FOR THE PORTION NE OF BAHAMAS NEAR THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 28N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT NW OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25 KT PRIMARILY OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY MON MORNING... THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH FROM 27N65W TO SE BAHAMAS WITH NE-E WIND OF 20 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN FROM 27N65W TO SE BAHAMAS LATER ON MON WITH NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT NW OF THE FRONT TO THE FL E COAST. BY TUE THE FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK W AS A TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE...AND REACHES THE FAR NRN WATERS BETWEEN 69W-72W ON WED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES E ALONG 29N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE STRONG SE WINDS THAT AFFECTED THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING AS AN ATLC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DROP SWD. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W HAS A MAX 1-MIN WIND REPORT OF 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA ARE IN NE ABOUT 15 KT. BY TUE THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED WITH 20 KT TRADES TAKING HOLD OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND THE SRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS BEHIND AN APPROACHING TRPCL WAVE. THESE CONDITIONS THEN SPREAD W TO E OF 79W BY WED AND TO E OF 82W ON THU AS THE WAVE ADVANCES INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... SE WINDS OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS AS WEAK PRES PATTERNS SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE S AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NE GULF THIS EVENING INTO MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS MAY BE MORE PROLONGED OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...PERHAPS LASTING INTO TUE WITH A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTING THERE. BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NW TO NEAR 26N89W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON MON AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES BUILDS SW IN THE NRN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE N GULF COAST THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN WED AND THU AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN GULF COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ELY OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF LATE TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.