000 AGXX40 KNHC 240652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT)...QUASI-STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WELL N OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN A WLY WIND REGIME ALOFT OVER THE SW N ATLC AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 25N65W 28N75W...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 31N59W TO 29N66W. RECENT BUOY DATA ALONG WITH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT S-SW WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWEEP S ALONG THE UNITED STATES ERN SEABOARD TODAY FORCING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ALONG 33N W OF 68W TO DROP SWD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT NEAR 30N75W AND TRACKING EWD THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ALL DEPICT THE LOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP IT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY W OF 70W BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN FCST SEAS WITH THE 00Z NWW3 INDICATING A MAX OF 8 FT...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 12 FT ON SUN WELL OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE WITH EARLIER RUNS WHICH SHOWED UP TO 14 FT. WILL GO WITH A RANGE OF 8-10 FT FOR SEAS NE OF BAHAMAS FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH WED)...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA BY MON AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ALSO INCREASING TO SW 20 KT N OF 25N E OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRES RIDES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TO NE OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. THE FRONT IS THAN EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 27N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON MON WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KT NW OF THE FRONT TO THE FL E COAST. BY TUE THE FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE AND BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK W AS A TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE...AND REACHES THE PROXIMITY OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUSTIFIED BY A 2342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHERE A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH ONE 30 KT WIND BARBS WHERE IDENTIFIED N OF THE HONDURAN COAST TO 19N AND BETWEEN 84W-87W. NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS A MAX 1-MIN WIND OF 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...BUT JUST RECENTLY RECORDED 8 FT. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS LIKELY THAT SEAS MAY UP TO 10 FT TO ITS S. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT COULD STILL BE NEAR 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA. BY TUE THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED WITH 20 KT TRADES TAKING HOLD OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND THE SRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS BEHIND AN APPROACHING TRPCL WAVE. THESE CONDITIONS THEN SPREAD W TO E OF 79W BY WED AS THE WAVE ADVANCES INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING WWD INTO THE NE GULF. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NW PART DURING THE AFTERNOON ...AND BECOME BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP S INTO THE NE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NW TO NEAR 30N89W BY SUN AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON MON AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES BUILDS SW IN THE NRN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE N GULF COAST THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN WED AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES TO THE NRN GULF COAST BY LATE WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.