000 AGXX40 KNHC 230542 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT)...LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS CENTERED NEAR ERN MAINE WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SPEEDY WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE W ATLC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CHANGEABLE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EDGED NWD ON THU AND IS NOW ALONG 25N WHILE A MEANDERING FRONTAL BNDRY IS STATIONED VERY NEAR 31N. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND WINDS TO THE N OF THE AXIS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE S AND W EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD ON SAT AND INDUCE THE FRONT TO SURGE S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKING E ALONG THE BNDRY. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NE 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 70W SAT NIGHT AND THE GFS IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN FCST SEAS WITH THE 00Z NWW3 INDICATING A MAX OF 10 FT WHILE THE 00Z UKMET WAVE MODEL NOW BUILDS SEAS TO 14 FT ON SUN WELL OFFSHORE. WILL NOT GO THAT HIGH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER THAN NWW3 WITH 8-12 OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH TUE)...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS 20 KT CONTINUING N OF THE BNDRY...AND ALSO INCREASING TO SW 20 KT N OF 25N E OF THE BNDRY. WILL STILL KEEP SEAS HIGHER THAN NWW3 GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 27N65W TO THE SRN BAHAMAS ON MON WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KT STILL EXTENDING NW TO FLORIDA. BY TUE THE FRONT IS DIFFUSE AND BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK W DUE TO STRENGTHENING ELY FLOW. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH A 0008 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATING A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT...AND PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT BARBS...W OF 82W. NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS A MAX 1-MIN WIND OF 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...AND IT IS LIKELY SEAS ARE AT LEAST TO 10 FT JUST A LITTLE TO THE S. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT COULD STILL BE NEAR 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL PRODUCE A WEAK PRES PATTERN SUN AND MON AND WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 20 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. BY TUE THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED WITH 20 KT TRADES TAKING HOLD OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND THE SRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS BEHIND AN APPROACHING TRPCL WAVE. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY SAT AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM S/CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY SWD AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA SUN AFTERNOON. NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TO 15-20 KT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON MON WITH A RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE N GULF COAST...CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.