000 AGXX40 KNHC 220607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SRN QUEBEC WHILE UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING STRONG PROGRESSIVE WLYS OVER THE W ATLC. SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FORM 24N65W TO W CUBA AND WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT N TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EASES E. A FRONTAL BNDRY LIES NEAR 32N WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS PRECEDING IT N OF 29N E OF 70W BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS 31N THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE A FINAL SWD SURGE UNTIL THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES ON SAT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL END UP FROM 24N65W TO N/CNTRL FLORIDA BY FRI/FRI NIGHT. OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH MON)...SFC RIDGE WILL BE FROM 24N65W TO S FLORIDA AGAIN ON SAT JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SURGES S OF 31N SAT EVENING/NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING N OF 26N W OF 70W LATE SAT INTO SUN. NWW3 GUIDANCE BARELY BUILDS SEAS TO 8 FT (PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT) SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE UKMET WAVE MODEL WHICH STILL SHOWS SEAS 8-12 FT IN NE SWELL N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. BY THEN THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS THEN THE FLORIDA KEYS...THEN LIKELY BEGIN TO STALL OVER THE SE PART ON MON. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...ATLC SFC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA BUT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT N TODAY. WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA...STRONG SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF 82W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CONFIRMED BY A 0232 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 1-MIN 23 KT WINDS REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 42056. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY FRI NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD NEAR 10 FT. THERE WERE STILL SOME AREAS OF SMOKE YESTERDAY S OF 18N W OF 86W BUT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...COVERAGE AND VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. OUTLOOK...THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATS E INTO THE CNTRL ATLC SAT THROUGH MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS THE W ATLC. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THUS WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES TAKING HOLD BY SUN/MON AND HIGHEST SEAS (OFF COLOMBIA) POSSIBLY SUBSIDING TO AS LOW AS 5 FT. THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO COME TO REST ACROSS CUBA ON MON WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF 18N TO BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...WRN END OF THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NW TO NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA AS SLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED OVER THE WRN GULF DUE TO STRONG LOW PRES OVER ERN COLORADO. SE/S WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF 88W TODAY THEN LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. SEAS ARE ON THEIR WAY UP AND SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9 FT WHEN WINDS REACH THEIR MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES ONLY SLIGHTLY FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SE WINDS 15-20 KT W OF 88W. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE. OUTLOOK...A CARRYOVER OF FRI CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON SAT JUST BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES S FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO MOBILE ALABAMA SAT NIGHT THEN FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA ON SUN. FRESH NE/E WINDS WILL DEVELOP NE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN WITH THE FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE ON MON AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.