000 AGXX40 KNHC 200546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT)...SFC RIDGE IS ALONG 24N/25N WITH A LULL IN THE SWLY FLOW N OF THE AXIS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NWD TO THE MID-ATLC. LOW PRES OVER KENTUCKY WILL SCOOT E TO THE DELMARVA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING OFFSHORE. SW WINDS BECOME 15-20 KT N OF 28N TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING E WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT ON THE NRN FRINGES OF THE ZONE BY WED/WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER S/CNTRL PARTS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG-TERM (THU THROUGH SAT)...RIDGE AXIS IS STILL ALONG 24N BY THU WITH SW WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE NE PART SHIFTING E OF THE AREA LATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE FAR NRN WATERS THU AND FRI BUT MAKE LITTLE SWD PROGRESS WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED FROM 25N65W TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA ON FRI. A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S LATE FRI/SAT POSSIBLY REACHING 26N SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE N OF THE FRONT WITH ENHANCED NE SWELLS PRIMARILY W OF 75W TO FLORIDA. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...SFC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS CUBA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MODERATE/FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT STRONG TRADES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE COLOMBIAN TRADES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON WED AS THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS W...AND AS A RESULT SE WINDS INCREASE OFF THE YUCATAN COAST WED NIGHT. VIS IMAGERY FROM MON STILL INDICATED A PLUME OF SMOKE HOVERING OFF THE HONDURAS/BELIZE COAST S OF 18N W OF 86W SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN FCST FOR TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT. LONG-TERM...SFC RIDGE LIFTS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ON THU THEN RETREATS INTO THE CNTRL ATLC BY SAT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS/OFF YUCATAN THU AND FRI THEN ABATE SOME ON SAT DUE TO LOW PRES OVER MEXICO/TEXAS. NORMAL TRADES DOMINATE THE REST OF THE REGION. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...REMAINING HINTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTEND FROM CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT THE ATLC RIDGE IS BUILDING WWD OVER THE REGION. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RIDGE KEEPS CONDITIONS BENIGN THROUGH WED THEN SE/S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WRN GULF WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SE MEXICO AND GUATEMALA HAS SPREAD NWD WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PROBABLE SE OF THE LINE MARKING THE OLD FRONTAL BNDRY. AS WINDS OVER THE SW GULF SHIFT SELY LATER TODAY...EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH WED IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. LONG-TERM...STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES THU AND FRI MAINLY OVER THE WRN GULF THEN RELAXES JUST A BIT ON SAT WITH SE/S WINDS ROUGHLY NEAR 20 KT. SE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS EVENT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8 FT OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER E OF 87W DUE TO THE GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.