000 AGXX40 KNHC 190603 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ROUGHLY FROM 31N68W TO CNTRL FLORIDA WILL BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE LATER TODAY AS UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA. ATLC RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 25N...ABOUT 5 DEG S OF WHERE IT SHOULD BE IN MAY...WITH STRONG SW-W WINDS 20-25 KT DOWN TO 28N. EXPECT THIS AREA OF WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA LIFTS NE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT... SW-W WINDS AGAIN PICK UP N OF 28N TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 24N/25N FOR THE SHORT-TERM. SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS S FLORIDA AND ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E-NE AND PRODUCE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM 25N-28N W OF 75W BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE FIRES. LONG-TERM...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG 24N/25N WED THROUGH FRI. STRONG SW-W WINDS CONTINUE N OF 28N WED THEN SHIFT E OF 70W THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES S OF 31N THU AND EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 28N70W FRI...HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE REGION EXCEPT LIGHTER NEAR JAMAICA/CUBA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLC RIDGE. WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW SINCE THE ATLC RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE. ALSO EXPECT A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN HONDURAS HAS DRIFTED N INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W WITH VSBY REDUCED TO 3-6 MILES (2.5-5 NM) AT NEARBY LAND STATIONS. LONG-TERM...ATLC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS W WED THROUGH FRI AND THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS W WITHIN A BAND FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE MERGES WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS TONIGHT DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AND LOW PRES OVER THE RED RIVER. RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ALONG 25N/26N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LONG-TERM...RIDGE AXIS MOVES LITTLE BUT HIGH PRES BUILDS FARTHER W WED THROUGH FRI AND INCREASES THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF. SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MAINLY W OF 90W BEGINNING WED EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER THE NE GULF FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRES FORMS W OF TAMPA BAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.