000 AGXX40 KNHC 160601 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...LATEST BUOY AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS RECENT SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE MODEST TO OCCASIONALLY BRISK RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH STRONGEST SE TO S WINDS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS E OF 90W. IN FACT...COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...EVENING SCATTEROMETER SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SERLY RETURN FLOW HAS INDEED ABATED...WITH ONLY SPOTTY 20 KT WINDS LINGERING MOSTLY OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS. THE HIGHEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E OF 90W COME FROM BUOYS 42001 AND 42003...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BUOYS RESPECTIVE- LY...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE 17 G 23 WINDS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT IN SE WIND WAVES WITH PERIODS OF 6-7 SEC. WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGEST IN THE LAST 12 TO 24 HRS...NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAX OF 6 TO 7 FT SEAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. ELSEWHERE E OF 90W SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT LOCALLY 2 TO 3 FT DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE FL W COAST. EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN...WHERE NE TO E WINDS WERE ABOUT 20 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT W OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS HAVING SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 5 FT IN SE WIND WAVES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS. STILL THOUGH...SHIP BATFR10 REPORTED SE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF JUST RECENTLY AND BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W RECENTLY REPORTED PEAK SEAS OF 6-7 FT...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER 20 KT WINDS MAY STILL BE HAVING AN IMPACT. IN SPITE OF THIS...SEAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUBSIDING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WITH VALUES OF 4 TO 5 FT NEAR AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND UP TO 6 FT CLOSER TO 90W IN SE WIND WAVES. S OF 25N...SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT NEAR THE NE MEX COAST TO 5-6 FT CLOSER TO 90W. IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW CONUS EARLIER TODAY...THE FRONT OVER TX YESTERDAY HAS VERY SLOWLY TRACKED TO A PSTN DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE TX COAST. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE HESITATING...MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF NERLY 20 KT WINDS IS FORECAST EARLY TODAY W OF THE FRONT AS PRESSURE RAPIDLY RISE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO RISE TO 5 TO 8 FT OVER A SMALL AREA OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN SUPPORT NOT DIGGING FARTHER S AND HEADING AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL OUT FROM NEAR TAMPA TO 25N90 TO 19N94W BY SAT EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS... 20 KT N TO NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT ALL AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE MEX COAST WHERE SOME 20 KT WINDS COULD PERSIST INTO SAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF FURTHER FORCING...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND BY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON W OF THE FRONT EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FT NEAR SHORE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A GENERAL S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT FLOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER SAT-SUN...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT. FROM SUN-TUE...THAT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE U.S. E COAST...AND WEAK HIGH PRES FROM SW ATLC SHOULD BUILD WWD INTO THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WIND REGIME SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH A GENERAL W TO SW 5 TO 10 KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 25N...AND E TO SE 5 TO 10 KT FLOW S OF 25N W OF 90W AND A S TO SW 5 TO 10 KT FLOW S OF 25N E OF 90W. TRANQUIL SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT WILL BE THE RULE ALL AREAS...EXCEPT TO PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN. SW ATLC...LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST EARLIER IN THE WEEK... CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. LUCKILY...NOAA BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N71.5W IS REPORTING SEAS NOW DOWN TO 7 FT...WHICH REPRESENTS A NOTEWORTHY DROP SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER ...SHIP 3FPS9 JUST N OF THE SERN BAHAMAS STILL HAS SEAS OF 10 FT IN NE SWELL AND NOAA BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO HAS SEAS VACILLATING BETWEEN 7-8 FT IN 12-13 SEC N SWELL. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT GENERALLY PREVAIL N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AT THIS HOUR...WHILE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT W OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT NEAR GAPS AND PASSAGES...WHERE NE SWELL HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION AND WIDE FETCH OF THE STORM FORCE WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK...IT SHOULD TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHEST SWELL TO COMPLETELY PROPAGATE OUT OF THE AREA. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...STRONG NW TO NW WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT HAVE FADED AWAY NOW THAT WEAK HIGH PRES HAS BUILT ACROSS THE AREA. ALREADY THOUGH...SW FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS BEGINNING TO SET UP N OF 28N W OF 75W IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT NEARING THE SE U.S. COAST. AS IS TYPICAL...THE SW FLOW SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SPREAD FROM W TO E...WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE VERY LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT OFF THE NE FL COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO REBUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT SAT AND 7 TO 11 FT SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A MIXTURE OF OLD NE SWELL AND NEWLY-FORMED SW WIND WAVES....WITH THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NRN WATERS SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SIMILAR TO IN THE GULF...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A BRIEF BURST OF W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT EARLY SAT...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WEAKENING OF WINDS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORT DURATION OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OCEAN SFC...WITH OF 2 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5 TO 8 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. S OF 27N...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM OLD N TO NE SWELL...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. FROM SUN-TUE...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES. ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MON BUT SHOULD NOT DROP S OF 30N...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER APPROACHING THE SE COAST BY EARLY WED. AHEAD OF EACH...EXPECT AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW TO RESTRENGTHEN GENERALLY N OF 27N. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN ENHANCEMENT TO SW TO W FLOW SUN EVENING INTO MON AND THEN A DECREASE MON EVENING...WITH EVENING STRONG SW FLOW RETURNING LATE TUE INTO WED. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT SHOULD PREVAIL N OF 27N W OF 72W...WHILE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE THE RULE N OF 27N E OF 72W. S OF 27N...WEAK RIDGING ALONG 24N SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH SE TO S 10 TO 15 KT WINDS S OF 24N AND S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 24N. SEAS SHOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM CURRENT VALUES...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN AND N TROPICAL ATLC...SINCE LOW PRES HAS DOMINATED THE WESTERN ATLC MUCH OF THIS WEEK...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL ABSENCE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ALTHOUGH WEAK HIGH PRES HAS NOW BUILT N OF THE AREA...ITS MAIN EFFECT HAS NOT BEEN TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE WINDS ARE NOW DIMINISHING. FROM NOW INTO EARLY SAT...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES S OF ABOUT 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W...HIGHEST AS IS TYPICAL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY ENHANCED TRADES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE ALSO LIKELY...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 KT. ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT IN THE NW TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 FT POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE...AROUND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FROM SUN THROUGH TUE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY REASSERT ITSELF...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RESTRENGTHENING OF TRADES...ESP MON AND TUE. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOULD AN EVEN STRONGER INCREASE BY MIDDLE AND LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF 17N E OF 78W TO SEE WINDS REBOUND TO 20 KT ON AVERAGE BY MON...AND LOCALLY 25-30 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA...WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN MON-WED AND BUILDING SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE S OF 17N E OF 78W...WHILE THE NW CARIBBEAN SEE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH A 10 TO 15 KT E TO SE FLOW AND 2 TO 4 T SEAS EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.