000 AGXX40 KNHC 101754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA TO LAKE CHARLES LA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT AROUND RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN TO SW TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS AROUND SUNRISE SUN. THESE SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE NE GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING WINDS BEHIND FRONT TO QUICKLY CLOCK TO NE AND BLOW AT 20-25 KT BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND TURN TO E MON...SE MON NIGHT...SE-S TUE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER EXTREME NW WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH STRAITS OF FL MON NIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN SEGMENT WILL LIFT N AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS CLOCK TO THE S. NEXT FRONT ALONG TX COAST MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND MAY STALL OVER NW WATERS. SW N ATLC...A RIDGE LIES E-W ALONG 22N-23N AS EXPECTED. SW WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AND ALREADY AT 20-25 KT E OF 78W. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL BRIEFLY TILL A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MENTION INITIAL BOUNDARY IN TEXT PACKAGE FOR SIMPLICITY. THIS SECOND FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL OVER NE WATERS BEHIND FRONT. WINDS WELL W OF FRONT CLOCK TO SE WED OVER THE NW WATERS AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DRIFT SE OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA S OF 17N. MODEL GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING ON STRENGTH OF E TRADES OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA SO WILL GO WITH GENERAL TREND OF WEAKENING TRADES AROUND MID WEEK. WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN IN 15-20 KT RANGE IN WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SE 15-20 KT NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 42W S OF 10N AND HAS BEEN MOVING AT 13 KT PAT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING WAVE AXIS W TO ALONG 55W MIDDAY MON AND INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE REACHING NEAR 73W LATE THU. MAY SEE SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND SOME SHOWERS ALONG WAVE S OF 10 N. ALSO SEEMS LIKE SUMMER CONVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.