000
AGXX40 KNHC 100635
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE 
WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH 
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTED WINDS TO 
20 KT CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. A COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...WITH UP TO 
20 KT FLOW FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE 
MON AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON AS IT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE THE WESTERN 
PORTION STALLS THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED PER 
CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
PERSIST ACROSS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS TO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 
THE AREA. BECAUSE THE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL TO THE 
NORTHEAST...WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ARE GENERALLY 
LESS THAN 20 KT. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 40W S OF 
10N IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE. THE WAVE MAY NOT GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT SHIFTS 
WEST...HINTING THAT THE IMPACT OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY BE 
LIMITED TO CONTINUING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM THE WATERS 
E OF TRINIDAD TO OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND 
MAYBE A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0145Z SHOWED SW 
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WATERS E OF NORTH FLORIDA...N OF 
30N...BETWEEN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N56W AND A 
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE JERSEY COAST. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA 
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AS A FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SW WINDS 
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...AHEAD OF 
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SUNDAY. 
THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING 
INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA MON AND TUE. WINDS 
DIMINISH INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 
GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET SHOW THE WEAKENING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SWEEPS SE AND STALLS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY LATE 
WED. 
 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.