000 AGXX40 KNHC 091737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...CURRENT SE 15 TO 20 KT SURGES YUCATAN CHANNEL COULD CONTINUE INTO SUN MORNING. FURTHER N...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA BAY TO 27N97W EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT SE AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TX COASTAL PLAINS. SECONDARY COOLER AND DRIER BOUNDARY ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN WATERS LATER MON PUSHING FRONT TO NW FL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO E AT 15 KT OVER NW WATERS MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH STRAITS OF FL OR LOSE IDENTITY NEAR THERE. E TO SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT OVER NW PORTION WITH THIS GRADIENT AND CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 88W TUE NIGHT AND ALONG 85W WED. NEXT FRONT NW WATERS WED NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH LATER FORECASTS AS MODELS ADJUST. SW N ATLC...SHOWERY REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH EVIDENT ALONG 25N E OF 70W THIS AM AND ARE LIFTING NE WITH TIME AND EXPECTED TO BE E OF 65W EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO WASH OUT ALONG 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE 30N55W 28N65W TO SE FL WILL SHIFT SE AND LIE DUE E TO W MEANDERING BETWEEN 22W AND 24W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY SHIFT E OF BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. W WINDS OVER THE N PORTION WELL N OF RIDGE ARE ALREADY INCREASING OVER NW WATERS AND THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OVER ENTIRE AREA N OF 27N INCREASING TO MAX OF 30 KT IN ADVANCE OF FRONT OFF GA COAST AT SUNRISE MON. MODELS LIKE THIS NEXT FRONT AND SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE INTO NW BAHAMAS MON NIGHT AND THROUGH BERMUDA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE NIGHT WITH NW SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 20 FT NEAR BERMUDA TUE NIGHT. I EXPECT MODELS TO FLUCTUATE WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED GRADIENT AND FUTURE PACKAGES LIKELY TO CHANGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AN E TO W RIDGE WILL LIE ALONG 22N TO 23N THROUGH PERIOD. OTHERWISE FRESH E TRADES DOMINATING THE TROPICS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE ALONG COAST COLOMBIA AND W OF 80W NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...AND ALSO NEAR BELIZE THROUGH WEEKEND. TRACKING A WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 36N THIS AM WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING AT 15 KT...THIS W PROGRESSION SHOULD BRING WAVE TO ALONG 55W MON MORNING AND INTO E CARIBBEAN TUE REACHING NEAR 68W LATE WED WITH CONVECTION NEAR 7N ALONG WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.