000
AGXX40 KNHC 080626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...BUOYS ARE SHOWING 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 
THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGER FLOW OFF TEXAS 
AND LOUISIANA IS OCCURRING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER ALL GULF WATERS AS THE LOW LIFTS 
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FROM EAST 
TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 25N THROUGH FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL 
MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACKS 
AND AMPLITUDES OF A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS N OF THE AREA 
PROMOTING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS 
CONSISTENT. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE AGAIN 
STARTING LATE SAT INTO SUN...THEN DIMINISH STARTING LATE SUN AS 
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON 
CARIBBEAN WINDS CONTINUES TO BE A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF 
THE AREA...INDUCING STRONG TRADES ACROSS FROM THE ATLC WATERS E 
OF BARBADOS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BUOY 42058 IS 
REPORTING 25 KT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
MOUNTAINOUS COLOMBIAN COAST FURTHER SOUTH. OTHER THAN LINGERING 
CLOUDINESS...THERE IS SCANT EVIDENCE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE 
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 65W. FURTHER WEST...SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVING BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL 20 KT SE 
FLOW...AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND WILL 
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST 
AND TERRAIN TO THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TRADES DIMINISH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.

SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN 
THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA...BEHIND A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE 
WATERS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF 
THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF 
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST 
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. GREAT DIFFERENCES IN WIND STRENGTH 
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...WITH NAM SHOWING SOUTH WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE...EURO MODEL BARELY REACHING 20 KT...AND GFS AND UKMET IN 
BETWEEN WITH 20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20 
TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING FRI NIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO REPEATS BY 
LATE SUN...AS ANOTHER LOW SHIFTS THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY. 
GFS...EURO AND UKMET ALL SHOW THE SECOND LOW TO BE A LITTLE 
DEEPER...AND THE SW WINDS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST A LITTLE 
STRONGER. CONSIDERING BUMPING UP WINDS TO 30 KT FOR SUN 
NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NEXT MODEL RUN. MODELS ALSO 
INDICATE A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST ON 
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS.

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.