000
AGXX40 KNHC 071711
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 31N IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
S AND LIE ALONG 26N THU AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. 
MODELS FLUCTUATING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT FRONT...BUT 
GENERALLY EXPECT THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER S AND 
RETRACT E EARLY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FRONT TO SLIP OFF TX COAST 
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A 
LITTLE THIS MORNING AND NOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE W OF 
90W...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI 
THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AGAIN SAT. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS N 
TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT MON. 

SW N ATLC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 31N59W TO 23N78W AND 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF 65W TONIGHT AND THEN E OF 55W ON THU 
NIGHT. CURRENTLY SW WINDS TO 20 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. A WEAK 
TROUGH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING IS LOSING UPPER SUPPORT 
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM 
BERMUDA TO SE FL THU...AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW NW OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE FRI IN ADVANCE OF NEXT 
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER BY 
NEARLY 24 HOURS ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT BUT EXPECT TO 
SEE A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT OVER THE NW WATERS SUN. THIS FRONT MAY 
STALL OVER NW WATERS AND THEN RECEIVE A SECONDARY NW SURGE LATE 
MON...OR THIS SURGE MAY BE THE ACTUAL FRONT. PLENTY OF 
UNCERTAINTY FOR DAY 4 AND 5 AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...A FRONTAL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA 
IS BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IN THE AREA...RESULTING 
IN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS. EXPECT E WINDS OVER THE S 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE 
INCREASING CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. EVIDENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING 
THROUGH BARBADOS ATTM WITH SOME DUST AND A FEW SHOWERS. 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER MN/KB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.