000 AGXX40 KNHC 040624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY REPORTS OVER THE NW SECTION NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT...AND THE NE WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE S-SW 10 KT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N98W THIS MORNING...AND FROM NE FLORIDA TO 24N90W BY LATE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH SEAS OVER ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN WATERS NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE IT MAY BE UNDONE BY ABOUT 2 FT AS LONG SE FETCH IN PERSISTENT SE 20 KT WINDS FROM NW CARIBBEAN HAS RESULTED IN SEAS UP TO 6 FT. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO LOWER TO MATCH GUIDANCE VALUES OF 3-4 FT LATER THIS MORNING. SLY FLOW INCREASES FAR W PORTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND MIDDLE PORTIONS BY THU AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS...AND THE WRN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N. LIGHTER SLY FLOW WILL BE OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF BY THU. LOOK FOR SEAS TO POSSIBLY REACH UP TO 7 FT OVER WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ON THU. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS... AND IN ITS WAKE NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE LEFT PRIMARILY TO THE N OF 25N AND E OF 63W AS NOTED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST EVENING. SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE STILL POSSIBLE HERE.. AND WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH TODAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AS OBSERVED IN SHIP REPORTS AND IN BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS HERE HAVING BEEN MAXING OUT UP TO 9 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOME THROUGH TONIGHT. SE- S WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PART WILL VEER TO MORE OF A SWLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS N FL. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS BEING A LITTLE FASTER...ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PSN OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. FRONT THEN REACHES FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT...FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AFTERNOON...FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED...THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA ON THU. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N70W 1022 MB EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES S TO NEAR 29N BY TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE W TO N FL. THE HIGH THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SE TO NEAR 28N67W BY MORNING AND SLIDES E OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...SIMILAR HIGH PRES DROPS S INTO THE AREA LATE WED AND SHIFTS E OF THE 65W LATE THU. RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS SHOULD BE SEEN OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA LATE WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... REMNANT DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 19N55W TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEING NOTED WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 180 NM SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE( NE-E 10-15 KT)...EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 19N W OF 85W WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PAST 00 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS RESULT OF TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHINESS OVER SE MEXICO AND ATLC HIGH PRES NOSING WWD TO WRN CUBA. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA ARE NE-E 15 KT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU AT WHICH TIME WIND GUIDANCE FROM NWP MODELS SHOWS TRADES ALSO INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND SRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES SW THROUGH THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA. SEAS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.