000 AGXX40 KNHC 021739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS ...A RESULT OF A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF FROM THE CAROLINAS IS CAUSING A MODEST RETURN FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN FACT...A 1204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN INDICATE A FAIRLY CONSTANT SE 20 TO 25 KT FLOW EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF. AS THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FOR OVER 36 HOURS...SEAS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO BUILD 6 TO 9 FT IN SE WIND WAVES EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTREME EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF MORE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND ARE GRADUALLY EASING UP A BIT. AS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRES IN THE SW ATLC SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF REGION SHOULD SLOWLY RELAX THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE ...DESPITE THE FACT THAT A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ...MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING E AND DISSIPATING SUN. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SHIFT NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN BECOMING N TO NE...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE NO GREATER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN AHEAD OF IT. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES SHOULD AGAIN EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP A N TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD BECOME NE TO E BY MID-WEEK. SEAS SHOULD BE 2 FT OR LESS EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN. A LIGHT BUT CONSTANT RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20 KT OFFSHORE NE MEXICO AND S TX. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN FROM 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AND UP TO 6 FT AT TIME OFF THE S TX COAST. CARIBBEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N48W TO AROUND 20N71W HAS INTRODUCED A NEW ROUND OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SW ATLC. AS THE RIDGING IS MORE E-W ORIENTED AND HAS NOT BUILT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS RATHER WEAK. THIS HAS LEFT TRADES MUCH WEAKER-THAN-NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. IN FACT...THE TYPICALLY STRONGER TRADES OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT...THOUGH WINDS COULD STILL BLOW TO 20 KT AT TIMES OVER THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE NE TO E WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 FT S OF 14N AND 1 TO 3 FT N OF 14N. THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER. A HEALTHY NE WIND IS BEING FUNNELED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALING NE 25 KT WINDS AND THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY SAT BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF ABATING. BRISK NE WIND TO 20 KT ALSO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...BUT SEAS ARE NO MORE THAN 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE...THE HEALTHY GULF RETURN FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH QUIKSCAT SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SELY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS DIMINISHING BY LATE SAT MORNING...WITH STILL 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW ATLC/TROPICAL N ATLC... AS MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AROUND 31N48W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO MOVE E...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN END WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BROUGHT A FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW ATLC EXCEPT THE NW WATERS. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AS WELL AS SHIP DATA SHOW A WIDE EXPANSE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 11 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS IN NE WIND WAVES. CASE IN POINT...SHIP 3FPS9 AT 16Z REPORTED NE 25 KT WINDS NE OF ELEUTHERA...WITH SEAS OF 11 FT. ALTHOUGH BRISK NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA INTO TONIGHT...THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR A GRADUALLY DIMINUTION SAT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...SINCE NE SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC CONTINUES BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS. NOAA WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT SHOWS 3 TO 4 FT SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SUN INTO MON...WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WHAT REMAINS OF NE SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE SERN BAHAMAS. FINALLY...NLY SWELL COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL N ATLC SAT SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN AND MON...WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 FT LATE SUN OR EARLY MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.