000 AGXX40 KNHC 240535 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EDT THU APR 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING EXTENDS SW FROM THE NE CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS. E-SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS W OF 90W CONTINUES IN 15-20 KT RANGE WITH A SMALL AREA OF NE 15 TO 20 KT ALONG NW COAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGHEST SEAS TO 6 FT AT END OF LONGEST FETCH OVER W CENTRAL WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE REGION BY FRI ALLOWING THE E TO SE FLOW TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE MIDDLE WATERS TO THE FL COAST BY FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST MAKES IT OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE SAT AND QUICKLY WASHES OUT. RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY SAT NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG N WINDS PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUN. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WITH THE CONTINUED STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO BE FRONT CONTINUING SE THROUGH STRAITS OF FL LATE MON. BY THEN RETURN ALREADY TO S OVER THE NW WATERS. GFS SUGGESTING GALE WINDS SW GULF SUNRISE MON WHILE OTHER MODELS AS LOW AS 20 KT. SO I WILL GO WITH 30 KT MAX SW WATERS AND MOVE FRONT THROUGH THROUGH ENTIRE GULF THIS PACKAGE...EXPECT PLENTY ADJUSTMENTS IN FOLLOWING PACKAGES. SW ATLC... COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CURRENTLY...THE MEAN LOW IS AT 28N69W 1011 MB WITH A TROUGH SW TO HISPANIOLA. NE-E WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 28N W OF 65W PER LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT PASS...BUOYS AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS. TSTMS INDICATED IN LIGHTNING DATA NE OF MEAN LOW TO JUST NE OF BERMUDA ATTM. A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERS WILL BE DENOTED ON GRAPHICS BUT PROBABLY USE THE MEAN LOW CENTER WORDING IN TEXT PRODUCTS FOR SIMPLICITY...REFERENCING WINDS AND SEAS TO THIS MEAN CENTER. BASICALLY BROAD LOW PRES WILL SHIFT E OF 65W THU NIGHT AND E OF 55W SAT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR ROTATING AROUND THIS MEAN CENTER AND THIS WEAK FRONT WILL IN TURN MOVE E OF 65W EARLY FRI NIGHT AND E OF 55W LATE SAT NIGHT. BY THEN AN E-W RIDGE SETS UP ALONG 31N AND THEN SHIFTS S TO ALONG 28N SUNRISE MON. RETURN FLOW FROM DUE S AT 20 KT OFF GA COAST MON MORNING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OFFSHORE GA MON AFTERNOON REACHING NW BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS... NE TO E 15-20 KT CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. E 15-20 NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 13N E OF 70W. MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR INTERMITTENT NE 15 KT IN SW GULF OF HONDURAS. COLD FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY N 15 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.