000
AGXX40 KNHC 140644
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS COLD DRY AIR MASS INTO NRN 
GULF SUPPORTING SURGE MERGING WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GULF.  
MOISTURE FROM E PAC ITCZ STREAMING NE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 11N83W IN SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SWATH SUPPLIES 
MOISTURE TO MENTIONED COLD FRONT.  RIDGE EXTEND NE TO SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER SW N ATLC AT 26N66W.  THIS COMPLEX FEATURE 
MAINTAINS BOTH CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS.  
ONLY OTHER MOISTURE AVAILABLE REMAINS OVER TRPCL N ATLC UNDER  
SUBTRPCL 60 KT JET CORE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO BE REINFORCED BY COLD AIR SURGE NOW OVER N GULF 
WATERS.  NW WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG N OF 25N THRU TONIGHT...VEER 
NE TO E AND DIMINISH BY WED NIGHT.  RETURN FLOW START PICKING UP 
AGAIN W OF 93W THU AHEAD OF NEW COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS NW GULF 
FRI.  

HI RES QUIKSCAT SHOW 30-35 KT N WINDS S OF 22N IN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.  N WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND 
VEER NE TUE THEN E ON WED.  HI PRES CENTER 1025 MB OVER FLORIDA 
PENINSULA CAUSING INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS SW GULF.

SW N ATLC...
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 26N FORCED E BY COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS. 
FRONT GETTING STRONGER PUSH FROM COLD SURGE ABOUT TO MERGE WITH 
IT AND REACH FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA TUE...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT E 
OF BASIN THU.  GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRES 1012 MB ON 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE FORCING COLD N WINDS OVER WARM GULFSTREAM.
THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN HIGHER SEAS THAN NWW3 CURRENT 
SOLUTION OF 12-13 FT.  WINDS COULD ALSO REACH ABOVE PRESENT 30  
KT FORECAST...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST NOT OUT OF PICTURE.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT CROSSES YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH STRONG N WINDS BEHIND IT 
BUT DIMINISHING GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THIS OUGHT TO 
CURTAIL STRONG WINDS AROUND COLOMBIAN 1008 MB LOW PRES...AT 
LEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN REINFORCING HIGH PRES MOVES SE 
BEHIND SW N ATLC LOW PRES MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH.  WIND 
AND SEAS REBUILD ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA TOPPING NEAR 30 KT AND 
12 FT ON FRI.  

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 24N W OF 93W...

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES