000 AGXX40 KNHC 120535 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE NW WATERS SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND HAS NOW PUSHED TO A POSITION FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 30N92W 23N98W. BEHIND THE FRONT...N TO NE WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KT BASED ON BUOYS AND A VERY RECENT ASCAT PASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...10-15 KT SE TO S WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE E WINDS ARE 15-20 KT DUE TO A LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS DRY IN NATURE WITH SAT IMAGERY ONLY DEPICTING A BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK AND NO STRIKES SEEN IN LIGHTNING DATA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND A MINIMAL GALE EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUN OVER THE SW WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES WEDGING S OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. MAX N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUN EVENING...DONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING E OF THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP N WINDS UP AROUND 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL SLACKEN FROM W TO E AND TURN E TO SE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W WATERS BY MID-WEEK. SW N ATLC... THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO BE IN CONTROL. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING 15-20 KT E WINDS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS BUT ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE NE SWELL OF 6-8 FT HAS LIKELY PEAKED NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...WHERE NWW3 SHOWS PERIODS AROUND 12-14 SECONDS CURRENTLY...WHICH LOOKS SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN A FEW BUOYS. NONETHELESS...SWELLS WILL DIMINISH AND BE REPLACED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY 15-20 KT S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT LATER TODAY OVER THE NW WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE GA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME BASED ON THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N AND NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SECONDARY SURGE OR POST-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP N WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... A QSCAT PASS AROUND 00Z INDICATES 20-25 KT NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...NE TO E TRADES ARE STILL FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO THE WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL W AND CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL GAIN STRENGTH INCREASING THE TRADES OVER THE TROP N ATLC AND THE E CARIB BY SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH NE AND E SWELL WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 10 FT SUN THROUGH TUE OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE NW CARIB AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF 25 KT AND BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT W OF 84W. BY WED...N WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FUNNEL WELL S TO THE COAST NICARAGUA. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI