000 AGXX40 KNHC 100619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT THU APR 10 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOWERING PRESSURES OVER TEXAS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 MB LOWER THAN MODEL FCSTS COUPLED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST MID-DAY FRI. WINDS MAY RELAX FURTHER JUST AHEAD OF FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL COL. EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT EXCEPT 25-30 KT OVER WATERS W OF 94W. GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS IN FCST 30 KT WINDS AND A SPOT 35 KT WIND IN THE SW GULF. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF/UKMET MODELS ARE FCSTG A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ON SUN IN THE SW GULF. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THESE MODELS AND THE UPWARD TREND IN THE GFS WILL HEADLINE A GALE IN THE SW GULF ON SUN. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 14 FT WHILE THE UKMET WAVE MODELS IS ABOUT 5 FT HIGHER. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NWW3 GIVEN THE EXPECTED QUICK DURATION OF THE EVENT. WINDS COME DOWN QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON W OF 90W BUT REMAIN NW 20-25 KT FAR E PORTIONS IN A RATHER STG CAA PATTERN FOR MID-APRIL. SW N ATLC... BROAD WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY E AND BE E OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI... THEN LOSE IDENTITY BETWEEN 65W AND 55W SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF TROUGH WITH THE SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER NW WATERS ON SAT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. TRENDS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RETURN FLOW HAVE BEEN WEAKER OWING TO A STRONGER FCST RIDGE. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF GA COAST LATE SAT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN AND FROM 31N67W TO E CUBA BY LATE MON. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT USHERS IN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES AGAINST THE RIDGE. CRUISERS TO BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT VARIABLE 10 KT AND NE-E SWELLS 4 TO 7 FT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO OPEN ATLC...AND 2 FT IN PROTECTED WATERS W OF BAHAMAS FROM FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING...BUT CAUTION...A QUICK 15-20 KT SHIFT TO NW SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WITH CONDITIONS SPREADING SE INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... BRISK TRADES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. WINDS SLACKEN IN THOSE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ENTERS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN...EXTENDING FROM SE CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SUN. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN AND DOWNSTREAM YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT AND MON. OTHERWISE 10-15 KT TRADES THROUGH SAT EXCEPT INCREASING S OF 15N 15-20 KT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN AND MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN. FORECASTER COBB