000 AGXX40 KNHC 090620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT WED APR 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE CAROLINAS EVIDENT IN THE SFC ANALYSIS. THIS HAS LOCALLY TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT NOTED IN THE 0050 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS BLENDING IN WITH AN EXISTING AREA OF 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THU WILL LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND TIGHTEN THE PRESS GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF AND INCREASE SE-S WINDS TO 25 KT. GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN FCSTG 30 KT WINDS. NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON EARLIER FCST OF GALES IN SLY FLOW. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF OTHER GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS AND KEEP WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BLDG SEAS 8-11 FT IN THIS WIND REGIME. WINDS SLACKEN THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT AND CLEARING THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SUN WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL. STRONG N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS SURPRISINGLY IS THE WEAKER OF THE MODELS WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE USUALLY BENIGN NOGAPS ALIGNS WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN FCST SOME 30 KT WINDS IN THE FAR WRN GULF. THE ECMWF EVEN PAINTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE FAR SW GULF ON SUN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AND FCST 30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF LATE SAT AND SUN AND NOT BITE OFF ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF GALES AT THIS TIME. SW N ATLC... SHORT WAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY LESS DEFINED AND WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 29N73W WITH A FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE FL STRAITS. 2310 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT W OF THE LOW AND FRONT...MUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE LOW SUCH AS IT IS WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE E AND NE THROUGH THU WITH N TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING SLOWLY IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING NE SWELLS TO 8-9 FT CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. WINDS BECOME E TO SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 20 KT BY LATE SAT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO THE FL STRAITS BY LATE SUN. SW WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THE SAME SPEEDS W OF THE FRONT. STRONG CAA NOTED WITH THE FRONT SUGGESTS WINDS COULD BE STRONGER THEN FCST BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IN PLACE OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALSO THE SW CARIBBEAN PER THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES. OTHERWISE FRESH TRADES PERSIST NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AND ATLC WATERS E OF WINDWARD ISLANDS...S OF RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN N ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING TRADES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB