000 AGXX40 KNHC 081800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 85W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED E-W AND RELATED TO THE UPPER FEATURE IS EVIDENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 25N85W. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE UPPER FEATURE THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES IS NOSING INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE KEYS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALLOWING SE SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU. THIS WILL INDUCE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WED. WHILE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THIS INCREASE...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN INTENSITY. NAM IS SHOWING GALE FORCE OFF TEXAS COAST BY THU MORNING...UNLIKELY WITH WAA...BUT WINDS TO 30 KT ARE DEPICTED IN OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL RUNS OF GFS. WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF OTHER GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HOLDING 20 TO 25 KT. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRI...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY FLOW. WILL CONSIDER BUMPING NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT SAT ALONG MEXICAN COAST WITH A NOD TO THE GFS AND NAM. GFS HAS THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN...BUT IT MAY BE WEAKER THAN DEPICTED GIVEN THAT IT'S APRIL. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IN PLACE OVER GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE FRESH TRADES PERSIST NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AND ATLC WATERS E OF WINDWARD ISLANDS...S OF RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN N ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK 1020 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 29N75W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE NRN BAHAMAS. FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED AS THE LOW SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. LINGERING SWELL OF UP TO 10 FT WILL DRIFT S TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BUT DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN