000 AGXX40 KNHC 071757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON APR 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER WARMER AND UNSTABLE LOOP CURRENT AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHERN YUCATAN TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH EWD TONIGHT AND BRING DISSIPATING CONVECTION INTO THE EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES AND FRONT COMPLEX THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NE GULF AND INTO FLORIDA LAST NIGHT WILL SHIFT FURTHER E...ALLOWING A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES AND INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED...SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA OF TEXAS. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES WILL ALLOW SE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WED AND THU. ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THIS TREND. GFS AND PARALLEL GFS MATCH NAM SHOWING SE WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT OVER WRN GULF BY EARLY THU...WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GFS AND SREF SHOW WEAKER 20 TO 25 KT. WILL HOLD 20 TO 25 IN FORECAST FOR NOW...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WEAKER SYSTEMS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI WITH STRONG NLY WINDS TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW FRESH SE FLOW OVER GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. THE HEIGHTENED WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC. THE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY TONIGHT...AND PICK UP AGAIN WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS MODERATE IN ALL BUT ALONG MOUNTAINOUS COLOMBIAN COAST AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS TO THE NORTH. SW N ATLC... A LOW AND FRONT COMPLEX IS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST CURRENTLY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASED NLY WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE LOW AS IT TRACKS TOWARD BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AS THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL AND REGION MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL PATH OF THE LOW...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON STRENGTH. GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF THE LOT...WITH 30 KT NLY WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE NLY TRAJECTORY AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM WEAK CAA...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE IN WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. WW3 SHOWS ASSOCIATED NLY SWELL OF UP TO 6FT AND 11S PERIODS PUSHING S TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND DECAYING AS IT GOES SOUTH. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT THROUGH THU...AS A BLOCKING RIDGE SETS UP TO THE N. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S OF BERMUDA AND WEAKEN BY FRI...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN