000 AGXX40 KNHC 070546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 24N95W WITH A 1012 MB FRONTAL WAVE ANALYZED JUST S OF APALACHICOLA. A SQUALL LINE AND ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTAMINATED VECTORS ON THIS EVENINGS 0004 UTC QSCAT PASS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER BUOY/SHIP OBS STILL INDICATED SE TO S WINDS OF 20 KT S OF THE BOUNDARY E OF ABOUT 87W AND E WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH TURNED MORE TO THE SE AND PICKED UP TO 15...LOCALLY 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR THE SQUALL LINE WAS OVER THE E GULF ALONG 87W WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND PUSH THE FRONT SE WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLA TO 27N90W BY THIS EVENING AND E OF THE AREA BY TUE. HIGH PRESS NOSES IN FROM THE MID ATLC STATES TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED WITH E TO SE WINDS UNIFORMLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS WILL SHIFT S TO SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND WRN WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE PRESS PATTERN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. NWW3 FCSTS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXPECTED SEAS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL...GENERALLY 10 FT WHICH AT THIS TIME APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN FETCH AND STRENGTH CONSIDERATIONS. BY FRI...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERING THE FAR N CENTRAL AND W WATERS DURING THE DAY AND EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 26N97W BY FRI EVENING. SW N ATLC... 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 29N60W DOMINATES THE AREA FOR NOW. 2226 AND 0002 UTC QSCAT PASSES INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 23N AND E OF 72W. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ERN GULF IS RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS OVER FLORIDA...THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N AND W OF 77W. CHANGES ARE IN STORE AS THE GULF SHORTWAVE ALLOWS A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE FL COAST BY MID-DAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE N OF THE AREA EARLY TUE NEAR 31N73W THEN SLIDE EWD JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA TUE INTO EARLY THU. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND ALSO THE MODEL WITH THE MORE NLY TRACK WITH THIS LOW. THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW E AND ESE WITHIN THE AREA THROUGH THU. FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE GFS TRACK. IN ANY EVENT N-NE WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER TODAY AND 20-30 KT TONIGHT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESS OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO THE SE OF THE LOW TRACK AND REACH 20-30 KT AS WELL BY EARLY TUE. SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COUNTER- CURRENT NE FLOW NW OF THE LOW AND REACH 10 FT LATER TODAY AND 12-13 FT TONIGHT ALONG 31N. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW TRACKS NOT TOO FAR N AND MAY HOLD AROUND 10-12 FT FAR NRN SECTIONS UNTIL THEN. THE LOW AND FRONT FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY FRI WITH HIGH PRES CENTERING ITSELF N OF THE REGION. WHILE THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT AREA-WIDE...NE SWELL WILL STILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE E OF ABOUT 73W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE S SIDE OF A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N60W AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 20-25 KT ELY TRADES N OF 11N E OF ABOUT 78W...AS INDICATED BY THE 2226 UTC QSCAT PASS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN THE CARIB AND TROP N ATLC. QSCAT DATA INDICATED SE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE HIGH N OF THE REGION SHIFTS SE AND WEAKEN AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER THE NW ATLC TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW ELY TRADES AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY THROUGH THU. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADES IS POSSIBLE BY FRI AS HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF N OF THE REGION...BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB