000 AGXX40 KNHC 061653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1253 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STALLED FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ANALYZED 1010 MB NEAR 29N86W. A QSCAT PASS AT 1140Z AND BUOY/SHIP OBS DEPICT SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY E OF ABOUT 88W. THERE ARE LIKELY STRONGER GUSTS IN THE LARGE BLOW-UP OF TSTM ACTIVITY N OF 26N BETWEEN THE FLA COAST AND 88W...GREATLY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH TO S CENTRAL FLA TO 28N94W BY MON AFTERNOON AND E OF THE REGION BY TUE. SLY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK EWD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING COMPLETELY. BY MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE CONUS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM E/SE REGION WIDE. WINDS WILL SHIFT S TO SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND WRN WATERS WED AND THU AS THE PATTERN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. NWW3 DATA IS SUGGESTING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE NW WATERS ON THU...DIDNT GO QUITE THIS HIGH IN THE FORECAST SINCE ITS STILL FAR OUT IN TIME AND GFS MAY BE OVERDOING THE WINDS A TAD. BY FRI...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERING THE FAR N CENTRAL AND W WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N60W AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER N COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 20-25 KT ELY TRADES N OF 11N E OF ABOUT 78W...AS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN THE CARIB AND UP TO 12 FT IN THE TROP N ATLC. QSCAT DATA ALSO SHOWS SE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...LIKELY BROUGHT ABOUT BY LOW PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE HIGH N OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER THE W ATLC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ELY TRADES AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE LATE MON THROUGH THU. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADES IS POSSIBLE BY FRI AS HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF N OF THE REGION...BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THE CURRENT STATE. SW N ATLC... A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 29N60W CONTROLS THE PATTERN FOR NOW. E TO SE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES S OF 25N E OF 72W. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OR SLIGHTLY WEAKER SLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PERSISTENT SWATH OF TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-79W...PRODUCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH PRES WILL ONLY HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES MOVE OFF THE FL/GA COAST. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONTAL LOW ON MON WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR 30N79W BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW THEN MOVES N OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT BUT THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. NLY SWELL OF ABOUT 12-14 SECONDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING SEAS TO 10-14 FT OVER THE N WATERS WED AND THU. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES E OF THE AREA BY FRI WITH HIGH PRES CENTERING ITSELF N OF THE REGION. WHILE THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT AREA-WIDE...NE SWELL WILL STILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE E OF ABOUT 73W. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI