000 AGXX40 KNHC 040624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH 15 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ELY 20 KT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. PATTERN HOLDS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. FRONT WEAKENS AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE NRN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SE RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ON TUE. SW N ATLC... LARGE 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N54W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 29N/30N DOMINATING THE FLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 24N/25N EXTENDING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN EXCEPT SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OR SO LATE FRI INTO SAT N OF 29N W OF 70W IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT WHICH GRAZES THE AREA ALONG 31N SUN AND STALLS ALONG 30N MON. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESS ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE FL E COAST ON TUE AND MOVE IT EWD ALONG THE FRONT WHICH RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH THE LONG ELY FETCH RESULTING IN SEAS OF 12-15 FT OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND 8-11 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A 21 UTC JASON PASS INDICATED 10 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL SUN WHEN ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS TRADES TO SUBSIDE. SUBNORMAL TRADES CONTINUE INTO MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB