000 AGXX40 KNHC 261810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SHORT-TERM...STATIONARY FRONT HAS HUNG UP FROM 23N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BUT THERE ARE ALREADY HINTS THAT THE ENTIRE CLOUD MASS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO THE W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLC. WINDS HAVE BEEN NELY 20-25 KT WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND THU THEN 10-15 KT BY THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 31N/32N THROUGH FRI WITH GENERALLY MODERATE E/SE WINDS S OF 28N AND GENTLE WINDS N OF 28N NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. NLY SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH NOAA BUOY 41047 REPORTING 13 FT COMBINED SEAS WITH AN 11 FT SWELL...AND THIS IS RUNNING PERHAPS A LITTLE ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE. THE SWELLS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT SHOULD BE 6-8 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS BY FRI. LONG-TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 31N FRI NIGHT THEN BREAKS DOWN ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE N. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SUN AND HIGH PRES WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 25N THEN SPREAD S AND COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GUN ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS WEAKER WITH ONLY 15-20 KT. WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY AND TEND TOWARDS THE HIGHER VALUES ON MON. CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA AND IS EXPECTED TO VIRTUALLY DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS NW OF THE BOUNDARY AREA NE 20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON THU AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH FRI. ELY SWELLS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALTHOUGH A NEW SWELL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY THU MORNING WITH SEAS RE-BUILDING TO 8-10 FT BY FRI. LONG-TERM...SFC RIDGE WELL TO THE N WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. AS USUAL...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE STRONGER OFF COLOMBIA. SWELLS E OF THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY RE-SUBSIDE...FALLING TO 5-7 FT BY MON. GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. WINDS OFF THE TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN RUNNING SE/S 20 KT MOST OF THE MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS REPORTED TO 7 FT. ELY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UP TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. LONG-TERM...THE GRADIENT SLACKENS OFF A BIT INTO SAT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN. OVERALL...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND KEEPS THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG