000 AGXX40 KNHC 191727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM THIS MORNING SHOW SUSTAINED 35 TO 40 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MEXICAN COAST. IN ADDITION...THE OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1003 MB LOW PRES AREA OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND 1026 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC LENT CREDENCE TO SEVERAL REPORTS OF GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 11Z ALSO SHOWED 30 KT WINDS IN THIS SAME AREA BETWEEN YUCATAN AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MINIMAL SOUTHERLY GALES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER. THE FRONT MOVES JUST SE OF THE GULF AND STALLS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN TOMORROW...AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF THU INTO FRI. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT...AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MIGRATES FROM NRN MEXICO INTO FLORIDA BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW FRESH ELY FLOW OVER THE NE GULF SAT. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN GULF WATERS SUN...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW. A MORE INTERESTING SETUP FOLLOWS SUN INTO MON WHEN A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PUSHING THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS SHOW WEAK SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND IT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...1O26 MB HIGH PRES BETWEEN CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA IS PROMOTING STRONG ELY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 11Z SHOWED MOSTLY 30 KT FLOW OFF COLOMBIAN COAST. WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING UP OFF THE COAST INTO TONIGHT TO ALLOW TIME FOR GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS IN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. SLY FLOW WILL NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E...THEN STALL FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA FRI AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA WILL SHIFT S FRI INTO SAT TO GENERALLY 25N. MODERATE SELY FLOW FOLLOWS FRI THROUGH SAT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN...BUT STALLS BY LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO MON CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES EMERGING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA COAST. AT ANY RATE...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST MON INTO TUE...COMPLETE WITH INCREASED WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST...AMZ084-086. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082-084-086. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN