000 AGXX40 KNHC 190645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 82W COVER ERN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW N ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEPING A VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO ITS SUBSIDENCE. LARGE MOISTURE SWATH RUNNING WITHIN 120 KT JET CORE FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL GULF SUPPLIES ITS CONTENT TO STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N95W TO 23N98W. LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS DEEP LOW PRES OVER TEXAS WHICH MOVES E QUICKLY ACROSS SRN STATES TOWARDS MID ATLC SEABOARD THEN SHIFT NE AWAY FROM REGION. GULF OF MEXICO... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEP 998 MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE TEXAS COAST AND 1026 MB HIGH PRES OFF CAROLINA COAST CONTINUE PUSHING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT. LOW PRES WILL TRACK E-NE INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. GALE WARNINGS SHOULD BE LIFTED WITHIN 24-30 HRS AS SUPPORTING LOW PRES INCH NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES CAROLINAS. GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND COLD FRONT RETURNING MODERATE E-NE FLOW THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC... REINFORCED HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB DRIFT SE INTO SW N ATLC BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT MOVED E OF AREA. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS PRES PATTERN FLATTENS...BUT LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE TO SPREADING ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW ON WRN SIDE OF REGION WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN NW CORNER. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT TRACK AS WELL AS REBUILDING OF HIGH PRES ONCE FRONT MOVES E OF AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... REINFORCED RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC AND DEEPER THAN EXPECTED 1007 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO WARRANT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF COAST. GRADIENT RELAXES WITHIN 30 HRS AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC AND WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING S EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MONA...ANEGADA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES INTO ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST...AMZ084...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ080...GMZ082...GMZ084. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES