000 AGXX40 KNHC 171804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTEROMETER DATA...SHIPS...AND BUOYS SHOW SE WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER MUCH OF GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 20 TO 25 KT FLOW NOTED OVER THE NE GULF AND 15 TO 20 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS/NRN MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT AND TUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE SLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CONSIDERING EXPANDING GALE WARNING AREA SLIGHTLY E NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST COVERING PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL GULF TO BLEND WITH COASTAL FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT 25 TO 30 KT FLOW WITH BUILDING SLY SWELL IN NRN WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE TUE. THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THE RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FUNNELING AFFECTS ALONG TERRAIN IN MEXICO. MOST GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS...AND REMAINING MODELS SHOW 30 KT FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA....WITH GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR MOUNTAINOUS COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING INTO THE LEEWARDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. PLUMES OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEFORE DECAYING THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC...STRONG NLY FLOW IS NOTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT IN LINE WITH SCATTEROMETER READINGS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AS DEEP LOW PRES N OF THE AREA CLOSES IN ON HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLC WILL ALLOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR BERMUDA WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE AS WELL TONIGHT...GENERALLY N OF 28N AND IMPACTING THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA NEAR BERMUDA. WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE AREA NEAR THE LEEWARDS. THE BIG STORY BECOMES LARGE NLY SWELL...UP TO 14 FT WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 14S...PUSHING THROUGH THE WATERS TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND THE NRN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF POTENTIAL FOR VERY ROUGH SURF...COASTAL FLOODING...AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS BOAT HANDLING IN EXPOSED MARINAS AND INLETS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES BUILDS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINAS BY WED...PROMPTING SE TO S FLOW OFF N FLORIDA TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO PUSH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY WED NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE THU AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND S OF THE FRONT ALONG 25N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 72W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING TUE N OF 23N W OF 90W...GMZ080-082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN