000 AGXX40 KNHC 160659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... BROAD RIDGE CENTERED AT 13N72W IN CARIBBEAN EXTEND TO COVER ENTIRE REGION FROM GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SW N ATLC AND TRPCL ATLC. WITH MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTED NE BY 45 KT JET CORE CROSSING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN E-NEWD OUT OF AREA...REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATER IS FAIRLY DRY...EVEN OVER DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST OFF TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENHANCING SURFACE LOW PRES OVER ERN STATES EXITING MID ATLC SEABOARD LATER TODAY. SECOND SHORTWAVE RIDING ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MID WEST STATES WILL REACH TEXAS LATE MON NIGHT ENHANCING CYCLOGENESIS OF DEEP LOW PRES 996 MB WHICH IN TURN WILL FOLLOW PATH OF PREVIOUS LOS PRES AND EXIT ERN SEABOARD BY LATE WED. BROAD RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER ERN CONUS THU. AT THE SURFACE... DEEP LOW PRES 1000 MB OVER TENNESSEE DRAGGING WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST OFF TEXAS COAST IS REINFORCED BY UPPER LEVELS AND SHIFTED E ACROSS MID ATLC SEABOARD. COLD ADVECTION OVER WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS ONLY ADDS FUEL TO COMBINATION INCREASING SW WINDS OVER SW N ATLC N OF 27N TO GALE CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MON. REINFORCED COLD FRONT USHERS IN HIGH PRES 1032 MB SE WITH NWLY WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE N OF 28N E OF 68W. HIGH PRES WEAKENS BY TUE AS UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS NE... BUT GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SECOND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER TEXAS INCREASING RETURN FLOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W TO ALMOST REACH GALE FORCE. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...CANADIAN BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...CONCUR ON HOLDING SHORT OF GALE CONDITIONS BUT LONG FETCH AND DURATION ADD LARGE LONG PERIOD SE SWELL TO SOLUTION. SIMILARLY...HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC INTRODUCE LARGE NLY SWELLS THAT SPREAD S INTO ENTIRE BASIN AND THEN SPILL INTO CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER SW N ATLC TIGHTEN GRADIENT AGAINST WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB OVER COLOMBIA INCREASING ELY TRADES...STRONGER ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. MOST TRANQUIL OF BASINS IS TRPCL ATLC WHICH REMAINS ON MODERATE TRADES TILL HIGH PRES INTRODUCES NLY WINDS AND LARGE NLY SWELLS TUE THRU THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N SUN NIGHT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES