000 AGXX40 KNHC 150642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG 90W COVERS ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE ALONG 74W. MOISTURE TRAPPED IN SW-NE 100 KT JET CORE ADVECTS ONLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN PASSAGE INTO SW N ATLC N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS SW NA TLC S OF 25N REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SW N ATLANTIC... SLIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS AS WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 23N53W MAINTAINS LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS BASIN. THESE SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SKIRTING FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N THEN QUICKLY SHIFT N OF AREA LATE TODAY. INTENSE LOW PRES 998 MB APPROACHES MID ATLC SEABOARD DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING BASIN LATE SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT START INCREASING N OF 27N SAT TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN. AGGRESSIVE GFS BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 31N E OF 68W SUN NIGHT WHILE UKMET STOPS A TAD SHORT. GIVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRES AT THAT TIME TO 984 MB...SO TIGHT GRADIENT AND ITS COLD ADVECTION PLAYING HAVOC OVER GULFSTREAM WATERS...WE CONSIDER PRUDENT TO ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR SUN NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS MOVING QUICKLY E OF AREA LATE SUN NIGHT. N-NE STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE AS 1026 MB HIGH PRES MOVES INTO FORECAST WATERS BEHIND FRONT. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM MENTIONED LOW PRES INVADE ENTIRE SW N ATLC WITH SEAS OVER 15-20 FT SPREAD TO THE SRN LATITUDES. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM REACHES MID-ATLC COAST WED NIGHT INCREASING SW WINDS TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE N OF 29N W OF 77W EARLY WED. AS GALE CONDITIONS SHIFT NE...STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT SPREAD S AND E TO 27N AND 70W BY LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL N ATLC WATERS AS ATLC HIGH PRES RETREATS E FORCED BY APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. TRADES RETURN BY MON AS NEW RIDGE BUILDS OVER ATLC TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING S OVER SW N ATLC EVENTUALLY REACH CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TUE OR WED AS 10-12 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO NWW3 GUIDANCE. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER NWRN GULF WATERS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT COMING OFF SE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE BUT QUICKLY MOVES E ACROSS NRN GULF WATERS TODAY WITH 15-20 KT E-NE WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 27N. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE SUN NIGHT AS STRONG SE-S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF...CONTINUING THROUGH TUE AND REACHING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS BY LATE MON. ALMOST ENTIRE GULF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO INTENSE LOW PRES 999 MB DEVELOPING OVER N TEXAS. NWW3 SOLUTION POINTS TO LONG FETCH AND DURATION LIKELY BUILDING SEAS TO 15 FT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF WATER TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG NLY WINDS OVER MOST OF BASIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LONG LASTING NOR LONG FETCH SO SEAS EXPECTED ONLY TO 10 FT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N SUN NIGHT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES