000 AGXX40 KNHC 140703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES 1017 MB OVER NE GULF MAINTAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF...SLIGHTLY HIGHER W OF 93W AS LOW PRES TROUGH OVER TEXAS ENHANCES SLY RETURN FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTION TURN TROUGH INTO 1004 MB LOW PRES CENTER AND TAKE IT NE ACROSS COASTAL STATES DRAGGING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN GULF LATE SAT AND EXITING ERN GULF BY LATE SUN. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT N OF 25N HAVE LITTLE DURATION AND FETCH TO BUILD SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY. HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1028 MB BUILD BEHIND COLD FRONT REINFORCED MON BY DRY COLD AIR INCREASE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF AND STRENGTHENS WIND TO 30 KT. WITH LONGER FETCH SEAS BUILD TO 14 FT IN LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS. SW N ATLC... LOW PRES 1015 MB AT 27N72W DRAGS WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 22N78W RELAXING PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND. PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE FRI WHEN SECOND LOW PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS INCREASE SW FLOW N OF 27N AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT SKIRTS NRN HALF OF SW N ATLC LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIRD...MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS BASIN SUN WITH STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD BUILDING SEAS ABOVE 12 FT. HEALTHY HIGH PRES FOLLOWS FRONT WITH VERY STRONG NLY WINDS... CARRYING GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...AND SEAS REACHING 20 FT IN LARGE N SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE TUE AS RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TO 1020 MB BUT LINGERING N SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT E OF 75W... SLIGHTLY LESS FROM 75W-78W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC FORCES HIGH PRES RIDGE E RELAXING GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL ATLC WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUN...AT WHICH TIME SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT DIGS SE INTO SW N ATL WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRES BEHIND INCREASING TRADES...FIRST OVER CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND THEN BASIN WIDE TUE. LOW PRES 1010 MB OVER COLOMBIA EXACERBATES TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG ITS COASTAL WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS RESTRICT AREA OF HIGH WINDS TO COLOMBIAN COAST BUT GRADIENT APPEARS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. FORECAST EXPANDS AREA OF STRONG TRADES STARTING MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES