000 AGXX40 KNHC 121655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1255 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWING IN ITS FORWARD MOTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A 1012 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST OF SW FLORIDA. N TO NW WINDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS BECOMING NE OVER THE WRN WATERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE. A 1022 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS WILL BUILD E IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT AND THU...THEN SHIFT E OF THE REGION BY THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SE TO S WINDS TO 15-20 KT ON FRI OVER THE MIDDLE AND WRN WATERS...SHIFTING SW AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 25N BY LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE FRONT DEPICTING IT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SAT...GFS BEING 6 HOURS OR SO EARLIER THAN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE 20-25 KT LATE SAT AND SUN AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WINDS SHIFT E TO SE...EXCEPT SLY IN THE W GULF...AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH DROPS S AND A NEW LOW FORMS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. OBVIOUSLY FAR OUT IN TIME...SO WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN GFS WHICH IS SHOWING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON MON. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER JET HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 11Z SHOWED NW 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SW WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT...DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION...WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. NONETHELESS...SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS WELL N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE REGION ON THU EXCEPT FOR THE STALLED TAIL END EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO 26N75W. HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS E THU THROUGH FRI THEN JUST E OF THE REGION BY FRI NIGHT. THE INCREASE IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SAT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ON SUN E OF 70W. IN RESPONSE...ECMWF/UKMET ARE INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. NEW 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THOSE MODELS...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE SWLYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT IS MAINLY E OF THE AREA BY MON WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING SE IN ITS WAKE. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THIS MORNINGS QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN LAST EVENING. QSCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED MAINLY 15-20 KT TRADES ELSEWHERE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHEN SE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW PORTION IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A SUPPRESSED RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT KEEPS SUBNORMAL TRADES THROUGH SUN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS REMAIN. BY MON...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INCREASING TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI