000 AGXX40 KNHC 111643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1243 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION FROM A 1018 MB LOW JUST S OF SE LOUISIANA TO S MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. N WINDS WERE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS APPEARING TO MAINLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT THE MOMENT. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW SHOWING 5-6 FT SEAS WHERE 6-9 FT IS OBSERVED ...SO FOLLOWED OBS AND STAYED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND IN THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 83W WHERE A LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE AS IT WEAKENS TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED...THEN RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT BY THU. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU...THEN E OF THE AREA ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT. GFS HAS SUFFERED FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES SO HAVE SMOOTHED THROUGH IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY LEANING TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PAINTING SLY 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS RESPONDING SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC... A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. QSCAT AND A FEW SHIP OBS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF THE FRONT AND SEAS TO 8 FT WITH NE SWELL OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N AND MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE WED EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT WITH NW WINDS NEAR 20 KT N OF 27N/28N W OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES E OF THE AREA ON THU EXCEPT FOR THE NEARLY STALLED TAIL END FROM 25N65W TO 24N74W. HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS E THU AND THU NIGHT THEN JUST E OF THE REGION BY FRI. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE W PORTION FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A DIG IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS UNTIL IT GETS E OF 70W SO THE FRONT MAY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE N AND E WATERS. CARIBBEAN... THIS MORNING'S QSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY 15-20 KT TRADES ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W-80W AND 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL FRI WHEN SE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW PORTION IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIG WITH THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SO EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN THE CARIB. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI