000 AGXX40 KNHC 110607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAST ZONAL PATTERN IS TRANSLATING INTO QUICKLY CHANGING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESS OVER THE SE CONUS HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE TX/LA BORDER SWD TO FAR NE MEXICO. FRONT IS STRONGER THAN FCST BY NWP MODELS WITH 25-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE ABOUT 3-5 FT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE NWW3. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AND EXTEND FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THIS EVENING. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 20 KT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NWW3. FRONT STALLS FROM S FLORIDA TO 23N97W LATE WED AND BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT W OF 90W WED NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BY THU. GFS APPARENTLY SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF SPURIOUS WINDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO THIS. WILL CUT WINDS DOWN AND KEEP SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL GULF ZONES FOR FRI. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AND EXTENDS FROM AL COAST TO 23N97W BY LATE SAT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND SPREAD OVER MOST AREAS N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SEAS RESPONDING APPROPRIATELY. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING E ALONG 30N THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE PORTION W OF 70W SLOWLY DRIFTS NW THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL. EXPECT WHATS LEFT OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO BEGIN LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. THE NEW COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD AND EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS ALONG 27N THU WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI AND SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE GA COAST SAT NIGHT. SOME OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS FRI NIGHT NOTED IN THE GFS MAY BE DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NONETHELESS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPORTS SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT FOR FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... FAIRLY TRANQUIL TRADES IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE UNTIL FRI AS SE FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A WWD BUILDING ATLC RIDGE RESULTS IN SOME INCREASE IN ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT WITH 15-20 KT SE WINDS CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB